San Francisco 49ers @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 31
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Chicago Bears +4, Total: 39.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – CHICAGO (+4) over San Francisco

Justin Fields is averaging only 4.2 yards per pass play (33rd) and a 4.6% interception rate (32nd), which are both worse than Josh Rosen’s rookie season (that’s bad!). Fields hasn’t gotten much help from his offensive line and has been under pressure on 38% of his dropbacks, the 6th-highest among qualifying quarterbacks. Bears right tackles Alex Bars and Lachavious Simmons surrendered 2 sacks and a 12% pressure rate last week. It looks like 5th round rookie Larry Borom could get the start for this game. San Francisco edge defender Nick Bosa ranks 13th in pass rushing efficiency but Chicago LT Jason Peters is conceding only a 4.4% pressure rate, so there is some hope for Fields.

It was reported that Bears’ Pro Bowl edge defender Khalil Mack isn’t going to play in Sunday’s game due to a foot injury while interior defender Akiem Hicks could be traded before the deadline next week. Mack ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency while Hicks is averaging 2.8 pressures per game on the inside. Sentiment seems to be down on Jimmy Garoppolo, but he is averaging 6.9 yppp this year, which is higher than he averaged in 2020, and he should have time in the pocket during this game.

Our model favors the 49ers by 4.1 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, so the line is fair. However, I’ll lean with Chicago based on a few very favorable situations, including a 147-52-5 ATS situation that plays on bad teams after a blowout loss (lost by 35 to TB last week).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Bears
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.83 34.33
  • Succ Pass Plays 45.0% 38.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.2% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 0.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.5% 22.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.6% 46.8%
  • NYPP 6.76 6.04



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.83 27.50
  • RB YPR 4.18 3.88
  • Stuff Rate 23.5% 24.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.4% 49.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.3% 46.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.08 4.32




Game

  • All Snaps 61.67 61.83
  • Early Down Succ 51.6% 46.8%
  • Succ Rate 46.4% 43.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.7% 45.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.48 5.25
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.28 29.40
  • Run Ratio 45.3% 45.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -0.79 0.79
 
  • Points 22.50 24.83
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