Game Analysis
CHICAGO (-3) vs San Francisco
Jimmy Garoppolo will get the start under center this week and my numbers have him rated about 2.5 points better than CJ Beathard. Depending on the status of Bears linebacker and defensive play-caller Danny Trevathan (questionable), Garoppolo may have a good matchup for his first start. Chicago lost all three games since Trevathan’s injury while allowing 5.7 yards per play. San Francisco’s passing offense currently ranks 31st in my metrics and I expect them to improve moving forward with Garoppolo.
It’s no secret the Bears rely on their ground game for offense with a 50% rush rate after factoring out garbage time, highest in the league, and this week they will face a 49ers rush defense ranked 21st according to my numbers, so their offense should find enough success to win this game. I have no opinion on this game with the line at 3 points but I’d lean with San Francisco at +3.5 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.3
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.7%
48.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
4.3%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.8%
20.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.3%
40.6%
-
NYPP
5.4
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
35.4
-
RB YPR
4.1
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
27.0%
23.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.5%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.3%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
71.1
-
Early Down Succ
43.6%
48.4%
-
Succ Rate
41.0%
45.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.7%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
28.8
-
Run Ratio
36.0%
49.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
30.3
-
Game Control
-6.7
6.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.5
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
35.0%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
9.9%
7.8%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.3%
34.2%
-
NYPP
5.4
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
29.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
19.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.7%
42.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.4%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
40.2%
46.4%
-
Succ Rate
38.3%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.8%
37.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
29.9
-
Run Ratio
47.2%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
30.1
-
Game Control
-4.4
4.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CAR |
3 – 23 L |
-12.4 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
4.2% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
26.7% /
39.0% |
26.7% /
14.6% |
3.4 /
2.9 |
54 /
65 |
48.7% /
42.6% |
40.7% /
41.5% |
33.6% /
29.7% |
4.0 /
4.5 |
1.9% /
1.5% |
27.8% /
63.1% |
30.1 /
33.7 |
| 2 |
@SEA |
9 – 12 L |
-2.0 |
20.7% /
33.3% |
6.9% /
7.1% |
3.7% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
4.3 |
52.6% /
37.2% |
21.1% /
20.9% |
8.4 /
3.1 |
48 /
85 |
38.9% /
37.5% |
33.3% /
35.3% |
49.2% /
23.7% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.6% /
50.6% |
24.5 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
LA |
39 – 41 L |
-8.5 |
46.3% /
64.3% |
9.8% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
10.4 |
51.5% /
51.5% |
27.3% /
30.3% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
47.2% /
57.4% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
50.8% /
55.4% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
3.3% |
44.6% /
54.1% |
36.1 /
36.1 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
1.4 |
30.8% /
49.1% |
5.8% /
10.5% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
4.0 /
5.6 |
37.0% /
39.1% |
25.9% /
30.4% |
3.5 /
2.3 |
79 /
80 |
33.9% /
51.6% |
32.9% /
46.3% |
27.9% /
17.9% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
28.8% |
22.3 /
27.9 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 26 L |
-3.3 |
50.0% /
44.7% |
4.2% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
31.8% /
32.4% |
31.8% /
32.4% |
3.0 /
4.4 |
70 /
75 |
46.3% /
38.2% |
44.3% /
38.7% |
37.3% /
58.1% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.4% /
49.3% |
17.5 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
@WAS |
24 – 26 L |
-7.0 |
30.0% /
60.5% |
6.0% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
2.7% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
65.0% /
38.2% |
25.0% /
29.4% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
70 /
72 |
41.2% /
51.8% |
40.0% /
50.0% |
50.4% /
43.6% |
4.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
28.6% /
47.2% |
32.6 /
26.9 |
| 7 |
DAL |
10 – 40 L |
-20.1 |
39.5% /
51.9% |
11.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
8.7 |
59.1% /
68.9% |
27.3% /
11.1% |
4.7 /
5.9 |
65 /
72 |
48.0% /
66.7% |
46.2% /
62.5% |
40.7% /
57.0% |
4.5 /
7.0 |
4.6% /
0.0% |
33.8% /
62.5% |
23.0 /
34.1 |
| 8 |
@PHI |
10 – 33 L |
-11.9 |
32.5% /
42.9% |
10.0% /
8.6% |
5.6% /
3.1% |
3.6 /
5.5 |
41.7% /
39.4% |
41.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
64 /
68 |
40.8% /
46.9% |
35.9% /
41.2% |
38.2% /
44.4% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
48.5% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 9 |
ARI |
10 – 20 L |
-7.3 |
32.1% /
40.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
58.8% /
34.8% |
17.6% /
13.0% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
73 /
76 |
40.7% /
38.9% |
38.4% /
36.8% |
30.7% /
45.8% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
1.4% /
1.3% |
23.3% /
60.5% |
23.5 /
34.4 |
| 10 |
NYG |
31 – 21 W |
4.9 |
60.0% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
11.5 /
6.5 |
41.7% /
52.2% |
19.4% /
21.7% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
61 /
63 |
51.2% /
56.5% |
49.2% /
54.0% |
67.7% /
35.6% |
7.8 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
59.0% /
36.5% |
31.9 /
26.6 |
| 12 |
SEA |
13 – 24 L |
-7.2 |
38.1% /
44.1% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
4.7 /
6.7 |
45.8% /
38.7% |
33.3% /
25.8% |
3.5 /
2.9 |
66 /
65 |
42.9% /
44.0% |
40.9% /
41.5% |
43.6% /
48.6% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
47.7% |
25.4 /
32.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.6 |
52.6% /
32.0% |
15.8% /
24.0% |
6.6 /
2.6 |
63 /
57 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
38.1% /
42.1% |
31.2% /
49.7% |
4.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
43.9% |
28.1 /
18.3 |
| 2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
2.2% /
6.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
25.0% /
36.1% |
43.8% /
11.1% |
1.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
69 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
48.4% /
42.0% |
6.5% /
14.4% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.2% /
1.4% |
25.8% /
52.2% |
27.0 /
31.1 |
| 3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% /
47.6% |
8.3% /
7.1% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
44.7% /
64.7% |
28.9% /
5.9% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
59 |
42.0% /
56.3% |
40.3% /
52.5% |
55.3% /
29.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.3% /
28.8% |
32.7 /
36.4 |
| 4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% /
41.4% |
2.9% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
48.0% |
26.7% /
4.0% |
3.4 /
3.7 |
64 /
54 |
36.0% /
43.2% |
39.1% /
44.4% |
25.6% /
50.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
46.3% |
28.5 /
33.5 |
| 5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% /
50.0% |
3.7% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
48.3% /
35.5% |
13.8% /
25.8% |
4.0 /
5.1 |
56 /
67 |
46.5% /
44.2% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
34.7% /
30.3% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
46.3% |
26.6 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% /
27.3% |
19.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
41.8% /
46.2% |
29.1% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
76 /
70 |
42.1% /
37.3% |
38.2% /
34.3% |
41.1% /
21.6% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
2.6% /
1.4% |
72.4% /
37.1% |
27.6 /
29.9 |
| 7 |
CAR |
17 – 3 W |
11.4 |
18.2% /
41.0% |
36.4% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
7.7 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
33.3% |
16.1% /
33.3% |
2.3 /
3.6 |
42 /
69 |
41.7% /
37.7% |
28.6% /
37.7% |
67.3% /
49.8% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
73.8% /
43.5% |
28.7 /
24.6 |
| 8 |
@NO |
12 – 20 L |
-7.8 |
32.4% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
6.7% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
9.5 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
32.3% /
18.2% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
65 /
63 |
36.2% /
52.1% |
38.5% /
42.9% |
61.2% /
57.9% |
4.7 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
47.7% /
52.4% |
24.8 /
30.8 |
| 10 |
GB |
16 – 23 L |
-5.0 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
12.5% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.5 |
29.4% /
52.6% |
35.3% /
15.8% |
3.2 /
4.2 |
57 /
66 |
35.7% /
55.3% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
51.1% /
39.1% |
5.7 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
57.6% |
26.5 /
30.8 |
| 11 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
0.0 |
48.4% /
52.9% |
3.2% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.4 |
60.0% /
40.0% |
13.3% /
40.0% |
7.4 /
2.6 |
61 /
59 |
56.9% /
53.2% |
54.1% /
47.5% |
45.5% /
39.4% |
6.5 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
1.7% |
49.2% /
42.4% |
23.9 /
24.0 |
| 12 |
@PHI |
3 – 31 L |
-17.1 |
22.9% /
45.0% |
5.7% /
2.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
6.7% /
41.7% |
53.3% /
22.2% |
0.5 /
5.0 |
50 /
76 |
18.2% /
45.1% |
18.0% /
43.4% |
7.8% /
32.6% |
2.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
3.9% |
30.0% /
47.4% |
27.9 /
40.5 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Chicago Bears