San Francisco 49ers @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Dec 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Arizona Cardinals -5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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ARIZONA (-5) vs San Francisco

Kyler Murray is coming off one of the best games of his career as he averaged 10.7 yppp last week in the win over Philadelphia. The Cardinals scored 33 points against the Eagles but it could have been even more if it weren’t for three turnovers. Arizona has gotten back to using Murray’s greatest strength as he has 21 rushing attempts the last two weeks compared to just 15 carries in the three weeks prior. Edge defender Kerry Hyder ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency, but tackles Kelvin Beachum and DJ Humprhies are conceding a combined pressure rate of 3.9% and Murray should have time to look downfield. However, it looks like cornerback Jason Verrett will return this week to duel with Cardinals’ star WR DeAndre Hopkins (2.44 yards per route run). Verrett is conceding just 0.84 yards per cover snap (13th), so Hopkins is likely to be kept in check.

Nick Mullens will be out the rest of the season with an injury in his right elbow so we are likely to see CJ Beathard as the starter. Beathard is about a point worse than Mullens and he could struggle with pressure in this matchup. Edge defender Haason Reddick had five sacks in week 14 and followed it up with 10 pressures last game. Reddick is up to 7th in pass rushing efficiency for the season alongside edge defender Markus Golden (7th in pass rushing efficiency since coming over from the Giants) and Arizona’s defensive front is holding it together without All-Pro DE Chandler Jones.

Our model favors the Cardinals by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, and while the matchups favor Arizona the situation favors the 49ers, who apply to a 20-1 ATS subset of a 182-81-5 ATS contrary situation and a 53-6-1 ATS same-season revenge underdog angle. I’m using the Niners in my pool.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • 49ers
  • Cardinals
SF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.9 34.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 46.6%
  • Sack Rate 5.9% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 3.4% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.3% 15.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.8% 38.6%
  • NYPP 6.8 6.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.4 26.9
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 24.2% 23.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.4% 47.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.9% 41.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 66.2 60.9
  • Early Down Succ 50.8% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.2% 46.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.9% 41.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 28.0
  • Run Ratio 41.1% 43.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.6 30.3
  • Game Control -0.4 0.4
 
  • Points 23.8 25.1
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