Game Analysis
Lean – San Francisco (-1) over ARIZONA
The Cardinals fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy for good reason as their offense ranks 31st in our season-to-date metrics. McCoy was never able to get David Johnson fully involved, as the star running back is averaging just 19.4 opportunities per game (carries + targets), which is 6.4 opportunities fewer than his last full season when he was First Team All-Pro. Byron Leftwich will now assume play-calling duties and he would be wise to get Johnson more involved, which would take some of the pressure off his rookie quarterback.
Meanwhile, second-year quarterback C.J. Beathard is being exposed and now ranks 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks in expected points added per play. However, Beathard has a favorable matchup this week as his most-targeted receiver, George Kittle, will face an Arizona defense allowing 8.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (26th) and could be without safety Tre Boston, who’s worth about a half point.
This game should feature the top two cornerbacks in the league with Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in yards allowed per cover snap, but Sherman may miss this game with a calf injury (although signs point towards him playing). Our model favors San Francisco by 2.2 points and Arizona applies to a 51-115-4 ATS situation. I’ll lean with the Niners.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.9
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.7%
51.6%
-
Sack Rate
11.5%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
4.6%
0.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.9%
41.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
8.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.4
28.0
-
RB YPR
5.1
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
15.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.1%
44.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.3%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
64.9
-
Early Down Succ
51.0%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
49.9%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.9%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.8%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
28.0
-
Run Ratio
44.8%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.1
34.1
-
Game Control
-4.8
4.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
25.4
28.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
137.3%
132.3%
-
Sack Rate
22.2%
21.6%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.8%
12.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.7%
32.8%
-
NYPP
16.1
17.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.6
34.6
-
RB YPR
3.0
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
24.4%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.0%
46.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
23.2%
53.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
46.0
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
41.2%
51.4%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
54.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.4%
42.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.0%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
36.7
34.0
-
Run Ratio
50.2%
56.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
30.1
-
Game Control
-7.2
7.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
44.8% /
44.4% |
24.1% /
5.6% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
61 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
49.2% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
38.4% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
46.7% |
24.1% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
70 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
51.4% |
42.9% /
28.2% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
42.9% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
71 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
42.3% |
46.4% /
47.4% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.7% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
71.1% /
80.0% |
10.5% /
10.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
16.4 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
72 /
36 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
61.1% /
44.4% |
41.2% /
47.1% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
4.2% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
72.2% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 33 L |
1.4 |
52.0% /
37.5% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
8.4 |
66.7% /
52.4% |
13.3% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
55 /
69 |
67.4% /
44.4% |
60.0% /
42.0% |
54.1% /
55.5% |
7.3 /
7.6 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
30.4% |
25.9 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
LA |
10 – 39 L |
-16.0 |
29.4% /
53.8% |
20.6% /
7.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.1 |
62.5% /
57.9% |
16.7% /
10.5% |
4.5 /
3.9 |
58 /
64 |
47.8% /
67.4% |
43.1% /
56.3% |
68.9% /
37.1% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
59.4% |
26.7 /
40.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% /
600.0% |
100.0% /
100.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
72.5 /
82.3 |
56.3% /
46.5% |
12.5% /
25.6% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
18 /
46 |
53.7% /
50.0% |
127.8% /
82.6% |
35.0% /
47.0% |
11.9 /
9.3 |
5.6% /
2.2% |
88.9% /
93.5% |
29.3 /
18.0 |
| 2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% /
64.7% |
3.6% /
5.9% |
3.7% /
3.1% |
3.0 /
10.1 |
33.3% /
48.5% |
13.3% /
24.2% |
3.6 /
2.7 |
43 /
67 |
23.3% /
59.2% |
25.6% /
56.7% |
0.0% /
51.9% |
3.2 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
49.3% |
19.0 /
39.1 |
| 3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% /
42.1% |
13.3% /
7.9% |
11.5% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
5.1 |
33.3% /
54.8% |
27.8% /
22.6% |
2.9 /
3.9 |
48 /
69 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
37.5% /
47.8% |
58.8% /
37.7% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
2.1% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
44.9% |
32.8 /
27.8 |
| 4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
3.6% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
3.3 /
5.0 |
56 /
61 |
40.9% /
58.0% |
41.1% /
49.2% |
54.0% /
35.6% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.7% |
26.4 /
35.5 |
| 5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% /
71.1% |
10.0% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
16.4 /
7.9 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
29.4% |
2.3 /
4.3 |
36 /
72 |
40.0% /
45.2% |
44.4% /
61.1% |
47.1% /
41.2% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
4.2% |
72.2% /
47.2% |
39.7 /
22.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% /
54.1% |
11.4% /
10.8% |
3.2% /
3.0% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
42.4% |
30.0% /
18.2% |
3.1 /
5.9 |
55 /
70 |
48.8% /
54.7% |
38.2% /
48.6% |
41.3% /
31.3% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
36.4% /
47.1% |
25.5 /
30.9 |
| 7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% /
45.8% |
13.3% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
4.5% |
3.4 /
7.4 |
33.3% /
32.4% |
28.6% /
23.5% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
66 /
58 |
41.2% /
42.5% |
37.9% /
37.9% |
32.3% /
52.6% |
3.4 /
5.4 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
31.8% /
58.6% |
23.5 /
37.0 |
San Francisco 49ers
@ 
Arizona Cardinals