Pittsburgh Steelers @

New York Giants

Mon, Sep 14
4:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 479
Odds: New York Giants +6, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY GIANTS (+6) over Pittsburgh

Lean – Steelers Team Total Under 26 (now 25.5)

The market was at Steelers -3.5 for the majority of the summer before getting a lot of action on Pittsburgh earlier this week. Our model is more in line with the summer price favoring the Steelers by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.8 points.

The Giants have one of the least talented defenses in the NFL with zero Pro Bowl-caliber players but Pittsburgh’s offense historically underwhelms on the road against bad defenses. The Steelers are 9-15 ATS in the last 6 years as a road favorite of 3+. Perhaps of greater note, Pittsburgh is 31-4-1 Under in their last 36 games as a road favorite and they’re 32-3-1 Under in all road games when the Over/Under is 49 points or less.

Roethlisberger averaged 7.1 yards per pass play during his last full season (9th), but it wouldn’t be surprising if the 38-year-old quarterback struggles coming back from injury in 2020, especially given the amount of hits he’s taken throughout his career, and the fact that he doesn’t have Antonio Brown to throw to anymore.

Pittsburgh’s defense loses interior defender Javon Hargrave (4th in pass rush efficiency), but the Steelers should still be dominate up front with Stephon Tuitt back from injury playing alongside TJ Watt (2nd in pass rush efficiency) and Cameron Heyward (6th in pass rush efficiency). The Steelers led the league in averaging 2.4 takeaways per game in 2019 and will certainly regress in this category. The last two league leaders in takeaways, Bears (2018) and Ravens (2017), have both dropped by a full takeaway per game the following season.

Furthermore, Giants’ quarterback Daniel Jones likely won’t turn the ball over as much as he did last year (29 in his 12 starts) but I expect New York’s offense to be predictable with Jason Garrett calling the plays and Saquon Barkley may struggle this season, especially with the team likely to be playing from behind in most games. I’ll lean with the Giants based on the line value and with the Steelers team Total Under given how conservative they tend to be offensively under Tomlin on the road (16-34-2 on Team Totals on the road since 2014), especially when visiting an inferior opponent.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Giants
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.9 35.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 40.3% 40.4%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 9.4%
  • Int Rate 3.5% 3.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 15.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.2% 35.9%
  • NYPP 5.7 5.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.8 28.9
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 28.1% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 42.4% 43.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.1% 30.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 58.6 64.4
  • Early Down Succ 43.5% 43.7%
  • Succ Rate 40.7% 42.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.7% 34.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 4.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.5 29.3
  • Run Ratio 42.4% 44.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.7 30.2
  • Game Control -0.5 0.5
 
  • Points 18.1 18.9
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