Pittsburgh Steelers @

Minnesota Vikings

Thu, Dec 9
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 101
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -3, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-3) vs Pittsburgh

The Steelers are surrendering a league-worst 4.8 yards per carry this year and Mike Zimmer certainly doesn’t need extra reasons to focus on the ground game, as he’d try to establish the run even if he was up against a brick wall. Justin Jefferson had 11 receptions for 182 yards and a touchdown last week, but I doubt we’ll see Kirk Cousins looking towards the Pro Bowl wide receiver that often in this game as Pittsburgh’s secondary will be able to double Jefferson without Adam Thielen (ankle) on the field. Furthermore, Steelers CB Joe Haden is being targeted just one in every 8.7 cover snaps (9th) and he will be back in uniform on Thursday night to limit Jefferson. Vikings C Garrett Bradbury ranks 25th in pass blocking efficiency out of 28 qualifying centers and has no chance across from Pro Bowl DT Cameron Heyward, who has 43 pressures (7th) and leads all interior defenders with 6 batted passes this season. TJ Watt had a career-high 12 pressures last week, but he will be slowed down by RT Brian O’Neill, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.

Ben Roethlisberger averaged 7.4 yppp last week but 70% of his yards came after the catch and much of the damage was done after the Ravens lost Pro Bowl CB Marlon Humphrey to a right pectoral muscle tear. Roethlisberger will likely come back down to earth as Minnesota’s defense will return starting CB Patrick Peterson and solid cover linebacker Eric Kendricks.

Our model favors the Vikings by 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, but Pittsburgh applies to a negative 21-74-3 ATS situation based on last week’s home upset win over division rival Baltimore while Minnesota is due to bounce-back after lost at Detroit. I used Minnesota in my pool despite the negative line value. As far as the total is concerned, the math likes the over but the matchups favor the under and Pittsburgh has a strong tendency to go under when they’re on the road (41-13-2 Under last 56 road games).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Vikings
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.92 36.42
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.0% 47.6%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 8.5%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.1% 18.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.3% 33.9%
  • NYPP 5.82 6.40



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.67 27.42
  • RB YPR 3.58 4.46
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 22.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 48.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.8% 52.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.63 4.75




Game

  • All Snaps 64.58 63.83
  • Early Down Succ 46.9% 52.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.3% 48.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.2% 40.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.02 5.69
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.30 29.21
  • Run Ratio 36.6% 43.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -2.50 2.50
 
  • Points 20.33 23.83
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