Game Analysis

LA RAMS (-3) vs Pittsburgh

· The Rams’ 47% dropback rate was the lowest of any offense in week 5 and Los Angeles had only a 31% dropback rate in the second half versus the Cardinals.

· The Rams finished with 175 rushing yards against Arizona as Kyren Williams did not face 8+ defenders in the box on any of his 20 carries. However, Williams and backup RB Ronnie Rivers are both sidelined this week and I expect Los Angeles to pass much more often in this game.

· Matthew Stafford is averaging 6.4 yppp (10th) with just a 2.0% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (3rd-lowest). He should be able to sling it against a Steelers pass defense rated 22nd by our numbers as long as he has the protection.

· TJ Watt leads the NFL with 15 quarterback takedowns and he will line up across from Los Angeles right tackle Rob Havenstein, who ranks 19th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Rams CB Derion Kendrick is allowing only 0.61 yards per cover snap (3rd) but he might be out on Sunday after getting arrested earlier this week providing a favorable matchup for WR Diontae Johnson, who was averaging 2.09 yards per route run against the 49ers before injuring his right hamstring in week 1.

· Pittsburgh wide receiver George Pickens will be shut down by Ahkello Witherspoon, who is conceding just 0.70 yards per cover snap (5th).

· Aaron Donald leads all interior defenders with 30 pressures and he will wreak havoc versus Steelers C Mason Cole, who ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Pittsburgh LT Dan Moore has surrendered 20 pressures this season (9th-most) despite only playing in 3 games plus 8 snaps in week 4. Moore will struggle across from Los Angeles edge defender Byron Young, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Kenny Pickett will have to use quick passes and screens to Jaylen Warren, who leads all running backs averaging 2.16 yards per route run. The Rams are surrendering a league-high 58% pass success rate to running backs.

· Our model favors the Rams by 7.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.8 points, but the Steelers are 56-25-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog under coach Mike Tomlin (regular season), including 31-9-2 ATS since 2018 (3-1 ATS this season) . I’ll also resist leaning over because Pittsburgh is 49-20-2 Under in road games since 2015 (2-0 UN this season).