Pittsburgh Steelers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 26
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 475
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Lean – KANSAS CITY (-10.5) over Pittsburgh

Chiefs’ big-play WR Tyreek Hill will be able to play this week but star TE Travis Kelce did not pass the Covid protocol and will not suit up. The Chiefs will also likely have starting RT Lucas Niang to line up across from banged-up edge defender TJ Watt, who leads the league in pass rushing efficiency. Steelers interior defender Cameron Heyward has 49 pressures (5th) but he will be neutralized by LG Joe Thuney, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. The main factor that could slow down Patrick Mahomes this week is the high wind speeds we will see at Arrowhead. Kansas City will be able to move the sticks with the ground game as Pittsburgh’s rush defense ranks last according to our metrics.

The Chiefs defense takes away wide receivers and Ben Roethlisberger won’t have tight end Pat Freiermuth (concussion) available. I expect the Steelers to feature screens in Kansas City, but RB Najee Harris is averaging a mediocre 1.04 yards per route run (17th).

Our model favors the Chiefs by 13.2 points even without Kelce, with a predicted total of 46.5 points. I’ll lean with Kansas City.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Chiefs
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.29 36.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.8% 45.6%
  • Sack Rate 5.9% 8.1%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 18.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.5% 32.7%
  • NYPP 5.78 6.21



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.21 29.07
  • RB YPR 3.58 4.72
  • Stuff Rate 25.2% 21.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 50.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.0% 51.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.61 4.93




Game

  • All Snaps 63.50 65.07
  • Early Down Succ 47.6% 51.9%
  • Succ Rate 44.4% 47.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.7% 39.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.99 5.64
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.04 29.16
  • Run Ratio 36.6% 44.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -3.43 3.43
 
  • Points 20.79 23.93
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