Pittsburgh Steelers @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Jan 16
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 149
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -12.5, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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KANSAS CITY (-12.5) vs Pittsburgh

Strong OpinionPatrick Mahomes (KC) Rushing Yards Over (20.5) at 23 or less

The Chiefs routed the Steelers in week 16, jumping out to a 25-0 halftime lead and winning 36-10. It could have been worse, as Patrick Mahomes only had 5 dropbacks in the second half of that game after building the huge lead. There is some hope for Pittsburgh as defensive play is crucial to postseason success with teams averaging 3 or more sacks in the regular season going 38-21-1 ATS in the playoffs. The Steelers and Vikings had the only defenses in the league to average 3+ sacks per game this year. Edge defender TJ Watt led the NFL with 22.5 sacks, and he will line up across from Kansas City backup RT Andrew Wylie, who surrendered twice as many sacks (4) as starter Lucas Niang (2) in less pass blocking snaps this season. However, Patrick Mahomes won’t have to worry too much about pressure coming up the middle as Chiefs LG Joe Thuney led all guards in pass blocking efficiency and C Creed Humphrey ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency. Pittsburgh DT Cameron Heyward had 61 pressures this year (6th) but only 2 of them were across from Thuney and Humphrey when these teams met in December.

Opposing defenses deployed six men or less in the box on 79% of snaps with Mahomes on the field this season which resulted in Kansas City’s ground game ranking 3rd by our metrics. The Steelers have the league’s worst run defense, and the Chiefs could approach 150 rushing yards if Pittsburgh uses light boxes.

Ben Roethlisberger averaged just 3.7 yppp versus the Chiefs as his quick passing game to WRs is a terrible approach against Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme designed to shut down wide receivers with physical cornerbacks. Kansas City CB Rashad Fenton conceded only 293 yards in 13 games, and he will limit Roethlisberger’s top receiver Diontae Johnson, who is averaging 1.89 yards per route run (18th).

Chiefs’ interior defender Chris Jones has 65 pressures (3rd) but the Pro Bowl DT will be limited by RG Trai Turner (12th in pass blocking efficiency) and Roethlisberger’s quick release. Roethlisberger had the fastest average time to throw of any QB at 2.27 seconds.

Our model favors Kansas City by 12.1 points with a predicted total of 49.3 points. KC does apply to a 39-7-2 ATS playoff situation that is 8-2-1 ATS when applying to double-digit favorites, but I still wouldn’t bet this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Chiefs
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.29 36.35
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.5% 44.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.4% 8.9%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.2% 18.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.4% 33.0%
  • NYPP 5.38 5.92



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.18 29.29
  • RB YPR 3.77 4.79
  • Stuff Rate 25.5% 21.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.7% 51.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.9% 51.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.82 4.97




Game

  • All Snaps 65.47 65.65
  • Early Down Succ 46.5% 52.0%
  • Succ Rate 43.7% 47.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.1% 40.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.81 5.49
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.76 28.66
  • Run Ratio 36.9% 44.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.95 30.52
  • Game Control -3.60 3.60
 
  • Points 21.71 21.88
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