Pittsburgh Steelers @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Pittsburgh (-10) vs JACKSONVILLE

Jake Luton is averaging just 3.4 yards per pass play versus the blitz in a small sample thus far and the rookie quarterback will be challenged this week by Pittsburgh’s blitz-heavy defensive scheme. RT Jawaan Taylor ranks 56th out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency and he has no chance of staying in front of TJ Watt, who is second in the league with 50 pressures. However, guards AJ Cann and Andrew Norwell have only conceded 20 combined pressures this season and they will make it difficult for Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward on the interior. WR Laviska Shenault was ruled out of last week’s game by coach Doug Marrone because of a hamstring injury, which is a notable loss to Jacksonville’s passing game. Shenault’s seven contested catches and 11 avoided tackles after the catch are the most by a rookie this season but his status is in question for this game. The Steelers have surrendered 4.9 yards per rush since losing linebacker Devin White, but the Jaguars likely won’t be able to take advantage of White’s absence as their ground game ranks 28th by our numbers.

We saw a different Ben Roethlisberger last week against the Bengals, as he averaged over 10 air yards per attempt for the first time all season despite winds upward of 20 mph in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh’s offense had seven explosive pass plays that went for 15 yards or more against the Bengals and we could see the same kind of approach versus Jacksonville’s 31st-rated pass defense.

Our model favors the Steelers by 12.5 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, but the Steelers are notoriously conservative on the road – especially as favorites. Pittsburgh is just 4-21 ATS as a road favorite of more than 3 points after a victory, including their near-loss at Dallas a couple of weeks ago, and teams with a win percentage of greater than .750 are just 13-44-2 ATS laying 10 points or more on the road following a home win going back 40 years. Pittsburgh is also 33-4-2 Under in road games when the total is 49 points or fewer, including 23-0-2 Under when favored by more than 2 points. So, while the model leans with Pittsburgh and over I want no part of either based on the trends.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Jaguars
PIT
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.7 38.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 40.1%
  • Sack Rate 3.4% 10.6%
  • Int Rate 1.0% 3.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 19.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.5% 48.6%
  • NYPP 6.2 5.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.4 24.6
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 23.9% 26.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 39.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.1% 47.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 65.1 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 42.0%
  • Succ Rate 45.8% 40.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.4% 48.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.2
  • Run Ratio 40.4% 38.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.1 27.9
  • Game Control 5.6 -5.6
 
  • Points 30.1 19.0
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