Game Analysis

Pittsburgh (-3) vs HOUSTON

· CJ Stroud ranks the best among the rookie quarterbacks at 19th in EPA/play. Stroud’s offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has the offensive line rated 14th in pass-blocking efficiency despite missing four of five projected starters.

· Texans’ rookie center Jarrett Patterson has conceded just three pressures, the fewest of all rookies with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps. Patterson and guard Shaq Mason will contain Steelers interior defender Larry Ogunjobi, who ranks 17th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Stroud is throwing past the sticks on 47% of his passes (6th-highest) and Pittsburgh’s secondary has surrendered a league-high 13 explosive receptions to wide receivers.

· However, it isn’t all good news for Houston’s passing offense. Stroud was pressured on 73% of dropbacks against the blitz last week against the Ravens. The patchwork Texans offensive line just doesn’t have the reps to communicate on blitzes and it looks like starting LT Laraemy Tunsil could miss another week.

· Tunsil was limited in practice all last week then scratched and he wasn’t practicing to start this week. Tunsil’s backup Josh Jones leads the NFL with 3 holding penalties, but he is banged up and it could get even worse for Houston if they get down to their 10th offensive lineman if Jones is unable to suit up. The Steelers have a 36% blitz rate (10th-highest).

· Texans’ wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins rank 5th and 6th respectively in EPA/target. Although the pair is likely to be contained as Pittsburgh CB Patrick Peterson ranks 18th in coverage grade by PFF and CB Joey Porter has allowed just 12 yards on 5 targets.

· Houston’s defense allows 8.1 yards per target to tight ends (26th) but this will be their first game with both starting safeties Jimmie Ward and Jalon Pitre. I expect the Texans to clamp down on TE Pat Freiermuth.

· Houston’s starting nickelback Tavierre Thomas is conceding just 0.76 yards per slot cover snap, and he could return to the field for this game as well.

· Kenny Pickett will need to keep with the screen game as Jaylen Warren leads all running backs gaining 2.15 yards per route run and the Texans are allowing 6.0 yards per target to running backs (26th).

· Our model makes Pittsburgh a 4.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.4 points, but the Steelers apply to a 49-124-5 ATS road letdown situation, and I’ll use Houston in my spread pool.