Game Analysis

Lean – Pittsburgh (+4.5) over CLEVELAND

· Thursday night’s game is setting up to be the highest sustained winds we’ve seen this season by a decent amount, which changes the normal handicap. Our metrics suggest the scoring conditions could be about 4 points worse than a typical NFL game.

· Strong winds tend to favor run-heavy offenses, which gives an edge to the Browns. Cleveland’s early down rush rate versus expectation is 11 percentage points above league-average according to our numbers and the Browns are a much better running team than Pittsburgh, whose running backs are averaging just 2.9 ypr.

· We have the Browns ground game ranked 9^th and Cleveland had 254 more total rushing yards than opponents Carolina and NY Jets.

· The Browns will have an excellent run blocker in starting right tackle Jack Conklin, who is making his season debut in this game. 

· Jacoby Brissett will have time in the rare occasions he does pass with TJ Watt sidelined. Furthermore, Cleveland RG Joel Bitonio ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency last year and he will limit All-Pro interior defender Cameron Heyward.

· Pittsburgh’s offensive line is not talented, but Mitchell Trubisky has just a 28.2% pressure rate (7th) mostly due to scheme. Myles Garrett already has 3.0 sacks (3rd) but I’m not expecting him to be a major issue for Trubisky because he will be getting all the attention in this matchup.

· Cleveland’s other starting edge defender Jadeveon Clowney is ruled out and his backup Chase Winovich (hamstring) will also miss the game. The Browns pass rush will basically be Garrett and players below replacement level. However, the wind will act as an extra man for Cleveland’s pass defense. 

· Our model has the Steelers by 1.4 points, but the wind significantly favors the Browns, which is why we’re passing on Pittsburgh as a Best Bet. The predicted total, with the weather factored in (as it always is) is 39.8 points.