Game Analysis
Lean – Pittsburgh (+3 at -115) over CLEVELAND
Lean – Under 41.5
Odell Beckham’s first year in Cleveland has been a disappointment, as he’s gaining just 1.88 yards per route run (21st). However, Beckham has been incredibly unlucky in his matchups as he’s run a league-high 54% of his routes against top-30-graded cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd is the only other player in the NFL to run more than 40% of his routes versus top-30-graded cornerbacks. This week, Beckham will line up across from another top-30-graded cornerback in Joe Haden, who is surrendering only 0.84 yards per cover snap (10th). The attention to Beckham has opened up space on the inside for Jarvis Landry, who is gaining 1.99 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th). I expect Baker Mayfield to look for Landry as well as running back Kareem Hunt, who saw 9 targets in his season-debut last week and averaged 1.91 yards per route run. However, Pittsburgh’s defensive front should exploit the right side of the Browns offensive line. TJ Watt leads all edge defenders with a 32% pass rush win rate and will wreak havoc across from right tackle Chris Hubbard, who has allowed 6 sacks (14th-most). Interior defender Javon Hargrave ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and has a favorable matchup across from right guard Eric Kush, who ranks 11th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. One positive for the Cleveland offensive line is the play of Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio, who should neutralize Cameron Heyward, whose 33 pressures rank 6th among interior defenders. Nick Chubb is having a great season, averaging 5.3 ypr while forcing 0.23 missed tackles per rush (4th), but he will be limited by the Steelers top-rated run defense.
The Steelers should have success through the air by targeting JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is in line for a huge game after being held to just 60 total receiving yards in the last two weeks. Smith-Schuster runs 63.3% of his routes in the slot and the Browns will probably be without excellent nickelback Eric Murray again. Backup TJ Carries surrendered 1.52 yards per slot cover snap filling in last week. Mason Rudolph will also be helped by the return of James Conner, who is gaining 1.92 yards per route run (6th). Edge defender Olivier Vernon ranks 21st in pass rushing efficiency but he will not be available, which leaves Myles Garrett to take on Pittsburgh’s strong tackle tandem alone. Garrett has a 28% pass rush win rate (4th), but he will be neutralized by right tackle Matt Feiler, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency, and left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, whose 93% pass block win rate ranks 7th.
Freddie Kitchens has not looked like a competent head coach all season and now faces a difficult spot to get his team prepared in a short week. Rookie head coaches are 13-21 ATS this decade on Thursday when not facing another rookie head coach. Our model favors the Browns by just 1.1 points (Pittsburgh by 1.8 points using this year’s metrics only), with a predicted total of 40.5 points. There is value on Pittsburgh here and I like the under given Pittsburgh’s 29-2-1 Under record in road games when the total is 49 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.4
39.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.6%
43.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
9.4%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
4.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.1%
14.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.4%
28.8%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
29.3%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.6%
43.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.7%
28.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
58.0
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
43.7%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
41.5%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.3%
28.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
2.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.0
28.3
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
40.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
30.1
-
Game Control
0.7
-0.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.4
34.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.6%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
49.3%
46.3%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.7
27.8
-
RB YPR
5.2
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
21.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
45.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.1%
46.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
62.4
-
Early Down Succ
45.4%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
52.3%
48.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
29.4
-
Run Ratio
38.7%
44.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.1
28.5
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
3 – 33 L |
-16.3 |
35.4% /
57.9% |
2.1% /
2.6% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
9.6 |
53.8% /
41.4% |
23.1% /
24.1% |
2.5 /
3.4 |
61 /
67 |
43.5% /
50.9% |
39.3% /
50.7% |
37.3% /
53.1% |
5.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.3% /
43.3% |
26.0 /
27.8 |
| 2 |
SEA |
26 – 28 L |
-0.8 |
42.9% /
56.4% |
2.9% /
10.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
7.0 |
56.3% /
45.5% |
25.0% /
24.2% |
5.1 /
4.6 |
51 /
72 |
52.5% /
55.4% |
47.1% /
51.4% |
31.4% /
42.0% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
31.4% /
45.8% |
34.5 /
25.6 |
| 3 |
@SF |
20 – 24 L |
2.2 |
24.1% /
51.5% |
6.9% /
3.0% |
3.7% /
6.3% |
5.5 /
8.1 |
50.0% /
52.5% |
27.3% /
20.0% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
51 /
73 |
39.5% /
52.5% |
35.3% /
52.1% |
52.3% /
40.1% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
4.1% |
43.1% /
54.8% |
26.8 /
38.3 |
| 4 |
CIN |
27 – 3 W |
10.4 |
71.0% /
24.4% |
0.0% /
17.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
8.4 /
2.3 |
36.0% /
57.9% |
40.0% /
21.1% |
2.6 /
3.8 |
56 /
64 |
63.6% /
36.2% |
55.4% /
34.4% |
39.9% /
21.7% |
5.8 /
2.7 |
1.8% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
29.7% |
32.9 /
30.3 |
| 5 |
BAL |
23 – 26 L |
-2.9 |
40.6% /
33.3% |
3.1% /
15.2% |
3.2% /
10.7% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
52.6% /
55.0% |
15.8% /
25.0% |
4.1 /
3.5 |
51 /
73 |
48.8% /
45.6% |
45.1% /
45.2% |
42.8% /
22.0% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
54.8% |
32.7 /
33.3 |
| 6 |
@LAC |
24 – 17 W |
16.2 |
55.0% /
44.4% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0% /
4.5% |
6.6 /
7.0 |
36.1% /
21.4% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
2.3 |
56 /
59 |
36.6% /
34.0% |
42.9% /
39.0% |
27.0% /
24.1% |
4.6 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
64.3% /
23.7% |
37.0 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
27 – 14 W |
-3.2 |
36.8% /
39.5% |
5.3% /
10.5% |
2.8% /
5.9% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
48.3% /
36.8% |
24.1% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
3.2 |
67 /
57 |
41.5% /
41.3% |
41.8% /
38.6% |
51.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.5% |
43.3% /
33.3% |
31.3 /
33.5 |
| 9 |
IND |
26 – 24 W |
-0.9 |
38.9% /
44.4% |
2.8% /
13.9% |
2.9% /
3.2% |
5.1 /
5.3 |
32.0% /
51.7% |
36.0% /
24.1% |
3.6 /
4.8 |
61 /
65 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
36.1% /
47.7% |
31.1% /
28.7% |
4.5 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
3.1% |
41.0% /
44.6% |
30.2 /
35.8 |
| 10 |
LA |
17 – 12 W |
1.2 |
39.0% /
34.8% |
7.3% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
5.6 /
4.7 |
18.5% /
30.4% |
44.4% /
43.5% |
1.6 /
3.8 |
68 /
69 |
30.0% /
41.5% |
30.9% /
33.3% |
30.8% /
26.1% |
4.0 /
4.4 |
2.9% /
1.4% |
39.7% /
33.3% |
27.4 /
26.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
13 – 43 L |
-7.1 |
39.5% /
35.7% |
11.6% /
14.3% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.7 |
45.0% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
63 /
56 |
49.0% /
50.0% |
41.3% /
42.9% |
47.4% /
67.8% |
5.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
22.6 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
23 – 3 W |
12.5 |
34.2% /
25.7% |
7.9% /
11.4% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.8 |
28.6% /
41.7% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
59 /
59 |
33.3% /
39.5% |
32.2% /
32.2% |
74.4% /
42.4% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
35.6% /
40.7% |
33.6 /
18.0 |
| 3 |
LA |
13 – 20 L |
-1.5 |
38.5% /
47.5% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
2.8% /
5.3% |
4.5 /
6.4 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
63 /
64 |
40.0% /
51.0% |
38.1% /
48.4% |
44.1% /
24.1% |
4.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
33.1 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
40 – 25 W |
7.4 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
3.1% /
10.5% |
3.2% /
5.9% |
10.5 /
5.8 |
51.7% /
58.6% |
24.1% /
13.8% |
6.7 /
6.0 |
61 /
67 |
52.2% /
59.3% |
50.8% /
55.2% |
55.3% /
39.7% |
8.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
47.5% /
43.3% |
26.2 /
27.8 |
| 5 |
@SF |
3 – 31 L |
-18.3 |
25.0% /
41.9% |
14.3% /
6.5% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
22.2% /
20.0% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
46 /
71 |
34.3% /
40.4% |
28.3% /
39.4% |
71.1% /
52.0% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
56.3% |
26.1 /
34.0 |
| 6 |
SEA |
28 – 32 L |
3.3 |
45.9% /
61.1% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.9 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
20.8% /
15.8% |
6.5 /
4.5 |
61 /
74 |
48.0% /
61.0% |
47.5% /
56.8% |
48.5% /
46.9% |
6.7 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
39.3% /
51.4% |
36.0 /
31.8 |
| 8 |
@NE |
13 – 27 L |
-12.1 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
13.9% /
7.7% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.1 |
59.1% /
33.3% |
22.7% /
40.7% |
7.2 /
2.9 |
58 /
66 |
53.3% /
39.6% |
46.6% /
39.4% |
59.7% /
52.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
40.9% |
25.2 /
36.2 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
45.5% /
39.1% |
4.5% /
13.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.6 |
37.9% /
45.0% |
20.7% /
15.0% |
3.1 /
6.4 |
73 /
43 |
44.6% /
46.9% |
42.5% /
41.9% |
38.2% /
71.9% |
4.8 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
39.7% /
46.5% |
34.2 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
19 – 16 W |
2.5 |
47.5% /
42.9% |
5.0% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
6.2 |
53.8% /
40.0% |
30.8% /
15.0% |
5.7 /
4.2 |
66 /
62 |
53.8% /
46.8% |
50.0% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
42.4% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
32.3% |
24.8 /
24.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ 
Cleveland Browns