Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (43.5) – Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Lean – CLEVELAND (+4)

The line has dropped on this game because of the likely holdout of Pittsburgh’s star RB Le’Veon Bell, who is now listed as doubtful to play. Last season, Bell’s rush success rate was 2.26 percentage points above the rest of Pittsburgh’s running backs, which translates to 0.4 points per game according to our study on the correlation between rush success and scoring. The passing attack is where Bell is likely to be missed the most. Over the last 3 seasons, our numbers show Bell averages 0.14 points more per target than other Steelers’ running backs have, which translates to 0.7 points when multiplied by Bell’s projected targets per game. Overall, Bell is worth 0.4 points in the ground game and 0.7 points in the receiving game for a total of 1.1 points. The market seems to have overreacted a bit to Bell’s value, as the line has dropped 2 points. Even with that overreaction, we see value with the Browns.

Coming off the second 0-16 season in NFL history, the Browns added significant pieces on both sides of the ball this Spring. Tyrod Taylor comes over from Buffalo to start under center and he is one of the lowest variance quarterbacks in the league due to his 1.4% career interception rate, the best among all active players with at least 1000 attempts. Cleveland’s quarterbacks threw an interception on 4.9% of their passes in 2017, by far the worst in the league and nearly twice the average rate of 2.5%. The Browns never won the turnover battle last year, but they can feel much more comfortable with Taylor under center. The Browns also added WR Jarvis Landry and will likely have former star WR Josh Gordon available for a full season for the first time since 2014. Gordon has a career 2.16 yards per route run giving the Browns top-10-receiver level production when he is available. Cleveland’s offensive line loses 9-time All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas to retirement and signed league-average tackle Chris Hubbard to avoid playing Shon Coleman, who surrendered the second-most pressures in the NFL last season. Isaiah Crowell’s 32% success rate ranked last among running backs with at least 200 attempts in 2017 and I expect the ground game to improve with the additions of Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb. The Browns should be much, much better offensively this season.

Cleveland’s defense wasn’t actually bad last season – they were just put in extremely negative field position situations by their turnover-prone offense – and they look to be improved in talent this season while playing under much better circumstances due to an improved offense. The Browns’ secondary is better after drafting cornerback Denzel Ward 4th-overall and signing CB E.J. Gaines, who is coming off a season where he surrendered just 0.82 yards per cover snap (11^th among CBs). Cleveland also signed T.J. Carrie to play nickelback and safety Damarious Randall, who has 10 interceptions since joining the league in 2015 (11th-most). Our model has Cleveland rated as a slightly better than average defense heading into this season.

Pittsburgh should still have a good offense if Bell does not play. According to our metrics, Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger finished as the 6th-most efficient quarterback last season and our QB model has him ranked 6th again for 2018. That projection would drop slightly without Bell’s pass-catching ability but the Steelers also have arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Antonio Brown and I expect JuJu Smith-Schuster to thrive in an expanded role after finishing his rookie year with 2.16 yards per route run, ranking 9th among receivers with at least 50 targets. Backup RB James Conner will get most of the runs with Bell out and he should be able to match Bell’s modest 4.0 ypr of last season (Conner averaged 4.5 ypr on 32 runs).

Pittsburgh’s defense was significantly worse after losing Ryan Shazier last year, surrendering 5.3 yards per rush and 26.7 points per game without him compared to 4.1 yards per rush and 17.5 points per game prior to his injury. Shazier is replaced by the mediocre Jon Bostic, but I don’t expect the Steelers’ defense to continue playing that poorly because they’ve now had an entire offseason to prepare for life without Shazier. However, they also aren’t likely to be as good as they were last season when Shazier was playing.

Cleveland’s offense has a relatively high floor with Tyrod Taylor under center and we expect their defense to finish in the top half of the league. The Browns have solid talent on both sides of the ball and appear to be underrated but will need to overcome their coaching. Unknowns with the new offensive scheme and Le’Veon Bell’s absence, plus questions about defending the run, give the Steelers a lower floor than usual. Out ratings favor Pittsburgh by just 2 points with Bell out and I’ll lean with Cleveland at +3.5 points or more.

As of Friday morning, there are 24 mph winds and 100% chance of rain expected in Cleveland at kick off. Games with the wind over 20 mph since 2000 average a total of just 38.3 points and games with rain average a total of only 40.7 points. Furthermore, divisional games played on grass go under the total 54% of the time. Overall, our model projects this game for 39.1 points if the current weather conditions hold and Le’Veon Bell doesn’t suit up, which is good enough for a Strong Opinion on Under 43.5 (-115) (okay down to 43 points).

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Browns

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.4 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 41.0%
Sack Rate 3.8% 10.2%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.3%
Deep Pass Rate 22.8% 21.1%
Big Pass Yards 42.7% 47.7%
NYPP 7.4 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 28.5 25.2
RB YPR 3.6 4.0
Stuff Rate 20.4% 24.7%
Succ Rush Plays 42.1% 46.2%
Big Rush Yards 38.6% 42.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.2

Game

All Snaps 67.9 59.2
Early Down Succ 49.0% 45.8%
Succ Rate 46.3% 43.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.9% 49.8%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 28.7
Run Ratio 42.5% 42.9%
Starting Field Pos 28.6 26.4
Game Control 2.4 -2.4

Points 26.4 20.8

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.9 34.9
Succ Pass Plays 35.1% 46.4%
Sack Rate 8.2% 6.6%
Int Rate 4.8% 1.4%
Deep Pass Rate 25.3% 12.6%
Big Pass Yards 46.0% 38.7%
NYPP 5.2 6.7

Rush

Rush Plays 24.2 31.1
RB YPR 4.1 3.0
Stuff Rate 21.9% 30.4%
Succ Rush Plays 45.7% 35.6%
Big Rush Yards 40.0% 44.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 3.2

Game

All Snaps 63.1 66.0
Early Down Succ 40.1% 44.0%
Succ Rate 38.9% 41.6%
Big Yards Rate 45.9% 41.1%
Yards Per Play 4.9 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 29.8
Run Ratio 38.2% 47.0%
Starting Field Pos 26.3 29.9
Game Control -6.2 6.2

Points 14.6 25.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CLE	21 – 18 W	5.8	45.9% / 43.2%	2.7% / 18.9%	2.8% / 3.3%	6.9 / 4.9	16.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	1.5 / 2.3	62 / 62	41.0% / 41.7%	33.9% / 40.3%	35.2% / 45.1%	4.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	20.8 / 28.6
2	MIN	26 – 9 W	9.3	40.5% / 32.5%	5.4% / 5.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.7	41.2% / 50.0%	20.6% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.6	71 / 60	48.1% / 42.9%	40.8% / 38.3%	34.1% / 45.1%	4.7 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.7%	47.9% / 33.3%	31.8 / 23.9
3	@CHI	17 – 23 L	-4.4	47.6% / 33.3%	7.1% / 8.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.0 / 3.5	64.7% / 44.7%	5.9% / 28.9%	4.1 / 5.8	59 / 62	56.3% / 42.0%	52.5% / 40.3%	29.4% / 55.3%	4.8 / 4.9	3.4% / 1.6%	28.8% / 61.3%	36.4 / 32.7
4	@BAL	26 – 9 W	8.6	41.9% / 52.9%	3.2% / 7.8%	3.3% / 4.3%	6.7 / 4.0	46.5% / 46.7%	23.3% / 46.7%	4.0 / 5.5	74 / 66	45.6% / 56.9%	44.6% / 51.5%	26.4% / 25.3%	5.2 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	58.1% / 22.7%	31.1 / 28.5
5	JAC	9 – 30 L	-4.5	42.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	9.3% / 7.1%	5.4 / 5.1	40.0% / 40.5%	35.0% / 24.3%	3.5 / 6.2	76 / 53	41.0% / 36.6%	42.1% / 39.6%	44.5% / 60.1%	4.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	26.3% / 69.8%	21.8 / 26.4
6	@KC	19 – 13 W	5.8	57.7% / 35.1%	3.8% / 8.1%	4.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 6.0	53.8% / 40.0%	17.9% / 33.3%	5.0 / 1.9	65 / 52	64.0% / 39.5%	55.4% / 36.5%	61.7% / 62.5%	6.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.8%	21.3 / 31.7
7	CIN	29 – 14 W	7.2	48.0% / 35.3%	0.0% / 11.8%	0.0% / 6.7%	10.7 / 3.2	37.0% / 22.2%	17.4% / 38.9%	3.4 / 4.0	71 / 52	49.1% / 32.4%	40.8% / 30.8%	56.5% / 35.6%	6.0 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	64.8% / 34.6%	29.4 / 29.1
8	@DET	20 – 15 W	1.9	41.9% / 48.9%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	10.2 / 8.7	41.9% / 50.0%	22.6% / 27.3%	2.5 / 3.2	62 / 69	41.9% / 58.2%	41.9% / 49.3%	53.2% / 58.1%	6.4 / 7.0	1.6% / 1.4%	50.0% / 31.9%	24.8 / 22.8
10	@IND	20 – 17 W	-5.1	50.0% / 40.7%	3.1% / 11.1%	3.2% / 4.2%	7.1 / 7.3	36.7% / 36.7%	36.7% / 33.3%	2.9 / 2.4	62 / 57	44.9% / 40.0%	43.5% / 38.6%	38.9% / 45.1%	5.1 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	48.4% / 52.6%	31.7 / 21.6
11	TEN	40 – 17 W	9.1	55.3% / 41.0%	6.4% / 12.8%	0.0% / 11.8%	6.0 / 6.8	33.3% / 32.0%	16.7% / 32.0%	2.8 / 2.2	71 / 64	55.6% / 42.9%	47.9% / 37.5%	26.7% / 53.3%	5.0 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	33.8% / 39.1%	44.3 / 22.2
12	GB	31 – 28 W	-1.4	65.2% / 40.0%	2.2% / 13.3%	4.4% / 0.0%	7.4 / 7.6	45.8% / 54.2%	8.3% / 20.8%	5.0 / 3.3	70 / 54	57.1% / 45.0%	58.6% / 46.3%	38.1% / 60.3%	6.6 / 5.7	1.4% / 0.0%	34.3% / 44.4%	31.7 / 26.9
13	@CIN	23 – 20 W	-7.5	46.3% / 44.7%	2.4% / 5.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.9 / 5.9	54.5% / 72.7%	18.2% / 9.1%	4.2 / 5.9	63 / 60	52.0% / 56.5%	49.2% / 55.0%	36.9% / 26.1%	5.9 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 36.7%	21.6 / 21.6
14	BAL	39 – 38 W	1.6	56.7% / 45.7%	4.5% / 2.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.3 / 7.5	43.8% / 65.4%	18.8% / 11.5%	3.7 / 5.8	83 / 61	50.8% / 56.9%	54.2% / 54.1%	41.3% / 49.6%	6.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	19.3% / 42.6%	21.0 / 26.0
15	NE	24 – 27 L	2.6	50.0% / 48.6%	6.3% / 5.4%	3.3% / 2.9%	8.4 / 7.6	51.6% / 57.1%	16.1% / 9.5%	4.6 / 3.8	63 / 58	46.8% / 59.1%	50.8% / 51.7%	39.0% / 44.2%	6.6 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.2% / 36.2%	26.6 / 23.1
16	@HOU	34 – 6 W	16.5	46.7% / 29.2%	0.0% / 29.2%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.5 / 2.1	40.0% / 42.9%	13.3% / 17.9%	3.6 / 6.3	60 / 52	44.2% / 41.0%	43.3% / 36.5%	44.4% / 65.6%	5.6 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.9%	50.0% / 53.8%	32.6 / 23.1
17	CLE	28 – 24 W	6.1	46.7% / 38.9%	10.0% / 16.7%	3.7% / 3.3%	7.5 / 7.6	35.3% / 44.4%	32.4% / 33.3%	3.7 / 3.8	64 / 63	50.0% / 38.3%	40.6% / 41.3%	55.6% / 67.6%	5.5 / 5.9	1.6% / 1.6%	53.1% / 42.9%	31.9 / 25.6
19	JAC	42 – 45 L	-11.0	50.0% / 50.0%	3.3% / 0.0%	1.7% / 0.0%	7.7 / 8.2	33.3% / 50.0%	27.8% / 11.1%	4.6 / 4.6	78 / 62	44.6% / 48.9%	46.2% / 50.0%	49.7% / 46.7%	7.0 / 6.1	1.3% / 0.0%	23.1% / 58.1%	28.3 / 35.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	18 – 21 L	-5.8	43.2% / 45.9%	18.9% / 2.7%	3.3% / 2.8%	4.9 / 6.9	36.0% / 16.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	2.3 / 1.5	62 / 62	41.7% / 41.0%	40.3% / 33.9%	45.1% / 35.2%	3.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	28.6 / 20.8
2	@BAL	10 – 24 L	-9.4	31.1% / 50.0%	6.7% / 5.6%	9.5% / 2.9%	6.5 / 5.6	38.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 27.3%	4.4 / 4.2	66 / 69	36.5% / 47.3%	33.3% / 43.5%	67.1% / 39.9%	5.8 / 4.9	1.5% / 1.4%	31.8% / 47.8%	22.3 / 33.9
3	@IND	28 – 31 L	-9.2	35.4% / 33.3%	2.1% / 11.1%	6.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 9.0	57.1% / 27.0%	19.0% / 37.8%	5.3 / 2.5	69 / 64	42.9% / 24.4%	42.0% / 29.7%	53.8% / 63.7%	5.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.6%	30.4% / 57.8%	28.9 / 29.6
4	CIN	7 – 31 L	-16.5	29.5% / 60.6%	4.5% / 9.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	3.9 / 8.0	41.2% / 40.0%	35.3% / 26.7%	2.6 / 2.9	61 / 63	32.6% / 50.0%	32.8% / 50.8%	33.0% / 43.4%	3.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.6%	27.9% / 47.6%	26.4 / 28.3
5	NYJ	14 – 17 L	-1.7	45.9% / 51.5%	2.7% / 9.1%	5.6% / 3.3%	7.5 / 5.4	45.5% / 19.0%	18.2% / 33.3%	4.2 / 1.8	70 / 54	46.3% / 45.9%	45.7% / 38.9%	40.1% / 32.1%	6.0 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	47.1% / 38.9%	30.1 / 29.0
6	@HOU	17 – 33 L	-16.2	31.7% / 50.0%	9.8% / 3.3%	8.1% / 3.4%	2.8 / 7.2	63.6% / 26.5%	13.6% / 26.5%	6.1 / 3.6	63 / 64	49.0% / 38.8%	42.9% / 37.5%	39.7% / 47.5%	3.9 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 53.1%	28.0 / 24.9
7	TEN	9 – 12 L	-2.1	39.0% / 41.7%	4.9% / 5.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	5.3 / 5.3	25.9% / 31.3%	22.2% / 46.9%	2.5 / 2.5	68 / 68	37.3% / 38.0%	33.8% / 36.8%	23.9% / 14.5%	4.2 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.5%	39.7% / 47.1%	25.1 / 33.6
8	MIN	16 – 33 L	-1.9	29.7% / 52.3%	8.1% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	4.4 / 6.5	54.5% / 41.2%	9.1% / 29.4%	5.2 / 2.6	59 / 78	42.2% / 50.0%	39.0% / 47.4%	41.3% / 28.8%	4.7 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.3% / 43.6%	31.2 / 32.8
10	@DET	24 – 38 L	-0.7	29.5% / 36.7%	9.1% / 13.3%	2.5% / 3.8%	4.8 / 8.0	60.6% / 42.9%	30.3% / 28.6%	6.1 / 5.0	77 / 51	41.4% / 41.7%	42.9% / 39.2%	48.9% / 73.8%	5.4 / 6.8	1.3% / 0.0%	42.9% / 41.2%	28.4 / 28.8
11	JAC	7 – 19 L	-3.9	32.4% / 31.3%	13.5% / 6.3%	6.3% / 0.0%	3.6 / 4.5	36.8% / 31.1%	26.3% / 35.6%	2.7 / 3.1	56 / 77	40.0% / 32.1%	33.9% / 31.2%	42.2% / 24.2%	3.3 / 3.7	5.4% / 1.3%	33.9% / 58.4%	30.4 / 33.0
12	@CIN	16 – 30 L	-8.7	34.3% / 55.2%	11.4% / 3.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.2	54.8% / 50.0%	25.8% / 21.9%	5.5 / 4.8	66 / 61	43.8% / 58.3%	43.9% / 52.5%	70.1% / 36.1%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	47.0% / 52.5%	23.7 / 33.4
13	@LAC	10 – 19 L	-4.7	34.3% / 56.8%	8.6% / 2.3%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.6	45.5% / 40.7%	31.8% / 29.6%	4.0 / 3.6	57 / 71	37.8% / 52.9%	38.6% / 50.7%	68.0% / 35.7%	5.1 / 6.1	1.8% / 0.0%	38.6% / 38.0%	24.3 / 26.6
14	GB	21 – 27 L	4.5	43.3% / 57.4%	6.7% / 2.1%	7.1% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.4	39.3% / 39.3%	14.3% / 32.1%	4.9 / 3.1	58 / 75	39.5% / 51.9%	41.4% / 50.7%	32.7% / 28.7%	6.0 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	48.3% / 37.3%	22.4 / 28.5
15	BAL	10 – 27 L	-7.8	28.2% / 44.2%	5.1% / 2.3%	5.4% / 0.0%	3.5 / 6.5	47.4% / 57.6%	15.8% / 21.2%	6.8 / 3.0	58 / 76	34.9% / 55.4%	34.5% / 50.0%	35.3% / 39.2%	4.6 / 5.0	3.4% / 0.0%	32.8% / 43.4%	18.8 / 36.0
16	@CHI	3 – 20 L	-8.7	35.1% / 28.6%	2.7% / 17.9%	5.6% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.8	40.0% / 35.5%	15.0% / 41.9%	3.8 / 3.1	57 / 59	37.2% / 26.2%	36.8% / 32.2%	25.3% / 60.1%	4.4 / 4.4	1.8% / 0.0%	35.1% / 52.5%	26.8 / 27.9
17	@PIT	24 – 28 L	-6.1	38.9% / 46.7%	16.7% / 10.0%	3.3% / 3.7%	7.6 / 7.5	44.4% / 35.3%	33.3% / 32.4%	3.8 / 3.7	63 / 64	38.3% / 50.0%	41.3% / 40.6%	67.6% / 55.6%	5.9 / 5.5	1.6% / 1.6%	42.9% / 53.1%	25.6 / 31.9

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Sep 9

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis