Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Pittsburgh

• The Bengals are hanging on with a 19% chance of making the playoffs mostly due to Joe Burrow, who is leading the NFL with nearly 3 wins above replacement. Burrow has been worth 8.1 points per game above a backup-level quarterback.
• Help is on the way for Burrow as Cincinnati’s offensive line will likely be getting back starting LT Orlando Brown, who ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency.
• The Bengals can put Brown on an island to help rookie RT Amarius Mims with extra blockers against edge defender TJ Watt, who has 7.5 sacks (13th).
• Steelers interior defender Cameron Heyward has 38 pressures (4th) and he has a favorable matchup across from LG Cordell Volson, who ranks 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Pittsburgh’s offense has a league-low pass-play rate adjusted for the situation and they will grind the clock with the ground game against Cincinnati’s defense surrendering 0.02 EPA/rush (30th).
• The Steelers RBs have a 22% target share (4th-highest) but Russell Wilson’s screen game will be contained as the Bengals are conceding -0.21 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Our model makes Cincinnati a 5.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.2 points, although Pittsburgh is 56-27 Under in road games going back many years.

Cincinnati is a Strong Opinion at -3 -110 or better.