Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CINCINNATI (-4) vs Pittsburgh

Lean – Under (45)

Pittsburgh’s defense surrendered 7.7 yards per play last Sunday night without edge defender TJ Watt (hip), CB Joe Haden (foot) and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (covid), but all three starters are expected to be back in uniform this week. Watt ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and they will need him on the field as interior defender Cameron Heyward (40 pressures) is likely to be limited by LG Quinton Spain, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.

Joe Burrow had 70% of his completions go for a first down last game despite more than half of his passes thrown short of the sticks, but he is averaging 8.4 air yards per attempt (9th) and will likely look downfield more often this week.

Cincinnati’s defense conceded just 10 points to the Steelers in week 3 and Ben Roethlisberger averaged only 4.8 yppp. Roethlisberger could be in trouble again as LT Dan Moore has surrendered 5 sacks and will not be able to contain edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model makes Cincinnati a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.3. I won’t lean with Pittsburgh because the matchups significantly favor Cincy, but I will lean with the under. Pittsburgh went over on the road last week, but the Steelers are still 41-12-2 Under in their last 55 road games, including 38-7-2 Under when the total is 49 points or less. The Steelers are also 62% Under the week after going Over the total since 2011.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Bengals

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.50 36.60
Succ Pass Plays 43.6% 48.4%
Sack Rate 5.1% 7.7%
Int Rate 1.3% 1.2%
Deep Pass Rate 14.5% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 35.8% 36.5%
NYPP 5.72 6.58

Rush

Rush Plays 24.40 26.70
RB YPR 3.61 4.44
Stuff Rate 25.4% 23.6%
Succ Rush Plays 43.9% 46.8%
Big Rush Yards 41.7% 55.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.67 4.74

Game

All Snaps 65.90 63.30
Early Down Succ 46.5% 52.6%
Succ Rate 43.7% 47.7%
Big Yards Rate 37.4% 42.9%
Yards Per Play 4.96 5.80
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.91 28.54
Run Ratio 37.0% 42.2%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -0.61 0.61

Points 21.40 22.60

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BUF	23 – 16 W	-2.06	44.1% / 44.4%	5.9% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.21 / 4.70	33.3% / 48.0%	42.9% / 16.0%	3.57 / 4.68	55 / 79	42.9% / 47.4%	40.0% / 45.6%	43.0% / 22.7%	4.58 / 4.70	0.0% / 1.3%	38.2% / 31.6%	29.45 / 32.64
2	LV	17 – 26 L	-3.62	47.6% / 59.0%	4.8% / 5.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.95 / 9.56	35.7% / 40.0%	35.7% / 32.0%	2.79 / 2.08	56 / 64	48.8% / 56.3%	44.6% / 51.6%	43.7% / 43.3%	5.91 / 6.64	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 39.1%	21.90 / 26.20
3	CIN	10 – 24 L	-8.82	41.9% / 55.6%	6.5% / 0.0%	3.4% / 5.6%	4.79 / 9.56	20.0% / 33.3%	26.7% / 29.2%	3.00 / 4.00	77 / 42	38.5% / 45.5%	37.7% / 42.9%	25.9% / 31.0%	4.44 / 6.38	0.0% / 0.0%	19.5% / 57.1%	22.55 / 37.67
4	@GB	17 – 27 L	-6.20	45.2% / 48.7%	4.8% / 7.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.24 / 6.05	62.5% / 57.6%	12.5% / 21.2%	3.88 / 3.97	58 / 72	56.8% / 52.7%	50.0% / 52.8%	32.7% / 43.0%	4.86 / 5.10	1.7% / 1.4%	27.6% / 45.8%	25.90 / 35.09
5	DEN	27 – 19 W	8.83	53.8% / 47.5%	3.8% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.38 / 6.70	45.7% / 38.9%	20.0% / 27.8%	4.20 / 5.89	61 / 58	47.9% / 52.5%	49.2% / 44.8%	51.3% / 45.7%	6.41 / 6.45	1.6% / 0.0%	57.4% / 31.0%	17.80 / 30.67
6	SEA	23 – 20 W	3.85	43.9% / 45.9%	2.4% / 13.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.51 / 4.46	53.3% / 63.0%	23.3% / 25.9%	3.97 / 5.33	71 / 64	51.8% / 62.0%	47.9% / 53.1%	22.7% / 48.4%	4.86 / 4.83	1.4% / 1.6%	42.3% / 42.2%	31.23 / 27.14
8	@CLV	15 – 10 W	-0.58	40.5% / 51.4%	5.4% / 11.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.89 / 6.00	37.5% / 33.3%	28.1% / 29.2%	3.59 / 4.00	69 / 59	42.0% / 53.5%	39.1% / 44.1%	40.2% / 35.2%	5.36 / 5.19	0.0% / 1.7%	46.4% / 40.7%	27.20 / 23.33
9	CHI	29 – 27 W	8.59	38.2% / 40.6%	11.8% / 9.4%	0.0% / 3.4%	5.15 / 8.69	43.8% / 50.0%	34.4% / 7.7%	3.28 / 5.23	66 / 58	43.2% / 50.0%	40.9% / 44.8%	47.4% / 56.4%	4.24 / 7.14	0.0% / 1.7%	48.5% / 44.8%	32.17 / 22.64
10	DET	16 – 16 T	0.63	38.0% / 24.1%	0.0% / 13.8%	2.0% / 0.0%	4.84 / 2.66	45.2% / 38.5%	16.1% / 25.6%	4.32 / 5.87	81 / 68	42.2% / 34.8%	40.7% / 32.4%	27.9% / 61.2%	4.64 / 4.50	2.5% / 0.0%	38.3% / 57.4%	28.21 / 29.93
11	@LAC	37 – 41 L	-6.66	46.8% / 62.8%	6.4% / 4.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.21 / 8.70	55.6% / 61.5%	16.7% / 23.1%	3.06 / 6.12	65 / 69	53.3% / 66.7%	49.2% / 62.3%	39.9% / 39.2%	4.62 / 7.72	0.0% / 0.0%	27.7% / 37.7%	0.00 / 0.00

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIN	27 – 24 W	3.43	46.9% / 43.4%	15.6% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.78 / 6.34	52.8% / 36.4%	25.0% / 45.5%	4.14 / 3.05	68 / 75	60.4% / 41.1%	50.0% / 41.3%	40.0% / 37.3%	5.38 / 5.37	0.0% / 1.3%	52.9% / 29.3%	27.23 / 24.62
2	@CHI	20 – 17 W	-6.62	41.2% / 25.9%	11.8% / 11.1%	10.0% / 4.2%	5.26 / 3.07	40.0% / 41.2%	15.0% / 32.4%	3.45 / 3.62	54 / 61	42.1% / 34.9%	40.7% / 34.4%	26.8% / 28.0%	4.59 / 3.38	1.9% / 0.0%	37.0% / 55.7%	26.64 / 39.70
3	@PIT	24 – 10 W	8.82	55.6% / 41.9%	0.0% / 6.5%	5.6% / 3.4%	9.56 / 4.79	33.3% / 20.0%	29.2% / 26.7%	4.00 / 3.00	42 / 77	45.5% / 38.5%	42.9% / 37.7%	31.0% / 25.9%	6.38 / 4.44	0.0% / 0.0%	57.1% / 19.5%	37.67 / 22.55
4	JAX	24 – 21 W	-4.43	54.5% / 60.0%	3.0% / 4.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.36 / 8.08	45.5% / 53.3%	18.2% / 13.3%	3.55 / 4.63	55 / 55	51.1% / 60.0%	50.9% / 56.4%	49.8% / 47.8%	7.64 / 6.20	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 54.5%	17.33 / 27.00
5	GB	22 – 25 L	-1.94	48.8% / 43.9%	7.3% / 4.9%	5.3% / 2.6%	6.44 / 8.12	62.5% / 36.4%	25.0% / 31.8%	4.29 / 6.05	65 / 63	59.6% / 44.0%	53.8% / 41.3%	39.1% / 63.3%	5.65 / 7.40	0.0% / 0.0%	36.9% / 34.9%	29.92 / 32.08
6	@DET	34 – 11 W	13.06	50.0% / 46.5%	6.3% / 2.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	8.00 / 4.47	55.6% / 33.3%	16.7% / 38.9%	3.94 / 2.00	68 / 61	52.0% / 45.5%	52.9% / 42.6%	49.0% / 13.9%	5.85 / 3.74	0.0% / 0.0%	52.9% / 29.5%	30.36 / 27.00
7	@BLT	41 – 17 W	6.48	51.3% / 31.9%	2.6% / 10.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	10.49 / 5.91	29.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 12.5%	4.63 / 4.79	63 / 71	46.8% / 47.9%	42.9% / 40.8%	69.8% / 54.5%	8.25 / 5.54	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 33.8%	31.46 / 25.69
8	@NYJ	31 – 34 L	1.33	44.7% / 66.7%	7.9% / 3.9%	2.9% / 4.1%	7.29 / 8.12	56.3% / 59.3%	43.8% / 25.9%	2.56 / 3.59	54 / 78	52.4% / 66.7%	48.1% / 64.1%	48.6% / 21.4%	5.89 / 6.55	0.0% / 1.3%	29.6% / 34.6%	39.67 / 27.50
9	CLV	16 – 41 L	-13.53	46.8% / 43.5%	10.6% / 8.7%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.60 / 9.04	43.5% / 39.1%	21.7% / 26.1%	3.70 / 6.65	70 / 46	54.7% / 43.2%	45.7% / 41.3%	13.9% / 74.9%	4.97 / 7.85	1.4% / 0.0%	32.9% / 50.0%	26.00 / 42.60
11	@LV	32 – 13 W	3.18	46.9% / 55.2%	9.4% / 6.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	4.03 / 7.10	50.0% / 66.7%	26.3% / 22.2%	4.18 / 4.00	70 / 47	48.1% / 71.1%	48.6% / 59.6%	30.0% / 48.8%	4.11 / 5.91	1.4% / 2.1%	54.3% / 38.3%	0.00 / 0.00

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Nov 28

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis