Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs CINCINNATI

Lean – Under 38.5

Ryan Finley has averaged just 3.3 yards per pass play in his two starts and the rookie quarterback is a clear drop-off from Andy Dalton. Joe Mixon has 45 carries the last two weeks despite the Bengals trailing for most of those games, which is an indication that they don’t trust Finley. The Steelers have the best run defense in the NFL by our numbers and there will be no way to shelter Finley in this matchup. TJ Watt has a league-leading 31% pass rush win rate but right tackle Bobby Hart is Cincinnati’s best offensive lineman and has played around league-average this season. Javon Hargrave and Cameron Heyward both rank in the top 10 among interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency and could be just as much of a threat as Watt.

JuJu Smith-Schuster leads Pittsburgh’s offense in targets but he will likely miss this contest. To make matters worse, the Steelers could also be without second wide receiver Diontae Johnson. Pittsburgh targets running backs on 25.5% of passes (7th-most) but I expect that number to spike on Sunday without Smith-Schuster and potentially Johnson. The Bengals are allowing 7.7 yards per target to opposing running backs (31st) and backup Jaylen Samuels is already more of a receiving back than starter James Conner, who is likely out. Cincinnati’s defensive line is likely to make it difficult for Mason Rudolph. Geno Atkins ranks 8th among interior defenders with 34 pressures and should dominate left guard Ramon Foster, who ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency, and the Steelers’ backup center (starting C Maurkice Pouncey is suspended for last week’s brawl with Cleveland).

The Bengals are in full tank mode with Ryan Finley under center in place of veteran Dalton and our model makes Pittsburgh an 8.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 38.1. I’ll lean with Pittsburgh and I like the under given Pittsburgh’s 31-7-1 Under record in road games, including 29-2-1 when the total is 49 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Bengals

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.8 38.6
Succ Pass Plays 42.5% 41.7%
Sack Rate 3.9% 8.7%
Int Rate 3.2% 4.0%
Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 14.7%
Big Pass Yards 37.0% 32.7%
NYPP 5.8 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 22.8 28.1
RB YPR 3.3 3.6
Stuff Rate 30.1% 26.0%
Succ Rush Plays 42.1% 43.0%
Big Rush Yards 34.5% 29.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.7

Game

All Snaps 58.6 66.7
Early Down Succ 44.2% 44.1%
Succ Rate 41.4% 42.6%
Big Yards Rate 37.3% 31.3%
Yards Per Play 4.9 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 28.4
Run Ratio 39.1% 41.5%
Starting Field Pos 30.1 31.2
Game Control -0.4 0.4

Points 20.0 20.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	3 – 33 L	-16.3	35.4% / 57.9%	2.1% / 2.6%	2.1% / 0.0%	5.8 / 9.6	53.8% / 41.4%	23.1% / 24.1%	2.5 / 3.4	61 / 67	43.5% / 50.9%	39.3% / 50.7%	37.3% / 53.1%	5.0 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	21.3% / 43.3%	26.0 / 27.8
2	SEA	26 – 28 L	-0.8	42.9% / 56.4%	2.9% / 10.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.1 / 7.0	56.3% / 45.5%	25.0% / 24.2%	5.1 / 4.6	51 / 72	52.5% / 55.4%	47.1% / 51.4%	31.4% / 42.0%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 2.8%	31.4% / 45.8%	34.5 / 25.6
3	@SF	20 – 24 L	2.2	24.1% / 51.5%	6.9% / 3.0%	3.7% / 6.3%	5.5 / 8.1	50.0% / 52.5%	27.3% / 20.0%	3.6 / 4.2	51 / 73	39.5% / 52.5%	35.3% / 52.1%	52.3% / 40.1%	4.7 / 6.0	2.0% / 4.1%	43.1% / 54.8%	26.8 / 38.3
4	CIN	27 – 3 W	10.4	71.0% / 24.4%	0.0% / 17.8%	0.0% / 2.7%	8.4 / 2.3	36.0% / 57.9%	40.0% / 21.1%	2.6 / 3.8	56 / 64	63.6% / 36.2%	55.4% / 34.4%	39.9% / 21.7%	5.8 / 2.7	1.8% / 1.6%	44.6% / 29.7%	32.9 / 30.3
5	BAL	23 – 26 L	-2.9	40.6% / 33.3%	3.1% / 15.2%	3.2% / 10.7%	6.0 / 4.2	52.6% / 55.0%	15.8% / 25.0%	4.1 / 3.5	51 / 73	48.8% / 45.6%	45.1% / 45.2%	42.8% / 22.0%	5.3 / 3.8	2.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 54.8%	32.7 / 33.3
6	@LAC	24 – 17 W	16.2	55.0% / 44.4%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.0% / 4.5%	6.6 / 7.0	36.1% / 21.4%	27.8% / 35.7%	3.4 / 2.3	56 / 59	36.6% / 34.0%	42.9% / 39.0%	27.0% / 24.1%	4.6 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.7%	64.3% / 23.7%	37.0 / 20.0
8	MIA	27 – 14 W	-3.2	36.8% / 39.5%	5.3% / 10.5%	2.8% / 5.9%	6.2 / 4.5	48.3% / 36.8%	24.1% / 10.5%	5.4 / 3.2	67 / 57	41.5% / 41.3%	41.8% / 38.6%	51.8% / 0.0%	5.9 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.5%	43.3% / 33.3%	31.3 / 33.5
9	IND	26 – 24 W	-0.9	38.9% / 44.4%	2.8% / 13.9%	2.9% / 3.2%	5.1 / 5.3	32.0% / 51.7%	36.0% / 24.1%	3.6 / 4.8	61 / 65	37.8% / 50.0%	36.1% / 47.7%	31.1% / 28.7%	4.5 / 5.0	1.6% / 3.1%	41.0% / 44.6%	30.2 / 35.8
10	LA	17 – 12 W	1.2	39.0% / 34.8%	7.3% / 8.7%	0.0% / 7.1%	5.6 / 4.7	18.5% / 30.4%	44.4% / 43.5%	1.6 / 3.8	68 / 69	30.0% / 41.5%	30.9% / 33.3%	30.8% / 26.1%	4.0 / 4.4	2.9% / 1.4%	39.7% / 33.3%	27.4 / 26.0
11	@CLE	7 – 21 L	-9.7	41.7% / 30.3%	8.3% / 3.0%	9.1% / 0.0%	3.7 / 5.7	37.5% / 37.1%	37.5% / 31.4%	3.6 / 3.0	64 / 68	48.0% / 33.3%	40.6% / 33.8%	28.8% / 54.6%	3.7 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 51.5%	21.8 / 41.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SEA	20 – 21 L	0.8	46.4% / 37.5%	8.9% / 16.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.1 / 6.7	21.4% / 36.0%	35.7% / 28.0%	2.4 / 2.9	70 / 49	42.6% / 40.0%	41.4% / 36.7%	49.9% / 61.4%	6.1 / 4.8	4.3% / 2.0%	20.0% / 51.0%	27.8 / 31.0
2	SF	17 – 41 L	-16.7	37.0% / 65.4%	8.7% / 0.0%	2.4% / 3.8%	6.3 / 12.0	31.6% / 64.3%	52.6% / 9.5%	1.3 / 6.2	65 / 68	30.4% / 68.4%	35.4% / 64.7%	53.2% / 63.1%	4.9 / 8.4	0.0% / 0.0%	29.2% / 61.8%	25.6 / 29.6
3	@BUF	17 – 21 L	-6.7	44.7% / 45.9%	5.3% / 2.7%	5.6% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.5	36.8% / 55.6%	31.6% / 19.4%	3.5 / 4.9	57 / 73	46.7% / 55.2%	42.1% / 50.7%	52.9% / 40.6%	5.4 / 5.7	3.5% / 1.4%	33.3% / 49.3%	30.5 / 29.6
4	@PIT	3 – 27 L	-10.4	24.4% / 71.0%	17.8% / 0.0%	2.7% / 0.0%	2.3 / 8.4	57.9% / 36.0%	21.1% / 40.0%	3.8 / 2.6	64 / 56	36.2% / 63.6%	34.4% / 55.4%	21.7% / 39.9%	2.7 / 5.8	1.6% / 1.8%	29.7% / 44.6%	30.3 / 32.9
5	ARI	23 – 26 L	-4.5	53.8% / 45.5%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.5	65.2% / 57.9%	30.4% / 13.2%	4.7 / 7.0	62 / 71	63.3% / 53.6%	58.1% / 52.1%	31.6% / 53.5%	6.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 53.5%	25.0 / 27.6
6	@BAL	17 – 23 L	-7.4	43.9% / 55.9%	4.9% / 2.9%	2.6% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.7	21.4% / 58.1%	42.9% / 18.6%	2.4 / 6.3	55 / 77	36.4% / 59.3%	38.2% / 57.1%	44.8% / 45.1%	4.5 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.3%	25.5% / 55.8%	27.3 / 25.5
7	JAC	17 – 27 L	-2.4	37.8% / 38.2%	4.4% / 5.9%	7.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	30.0% / 52.3%	50.0% / 25.0%	1.7 / 4.9	65 / 78	34.0% / 53.4%	35.4% / 46.2%	53.6% / 66.7%	4.5 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	30.8% / 56.4%	29.1 / 28.6
8	@LA	10 – 24 L	-8.5	38.6% / 51.6%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 12.0	36.4% / 38.5%	9.1% / 42.3%	4.7 / 3.8	79 / 57	38.5% / 43.2%	38.0% / 45.6%	47.1% / 70.6%	5.1 / 8.2	0.0% / 0.0%	27.8% / 45.6%	21.8 / 15.6
10	BAL	13 – 49 L	-22.7	40.6% / 69.6%	6.3% / 4.3%	3.3% / 4.5%	4.7 / 10.6	62.5% / 65.2%	30.0% / 17.4%	3.9 / 5.9	72 / 46	56.6% / 70.3%	52.8% / 67.4%	29.6% / 46.4%	4.3 / 8.2	2.8% / 0.0%	55.6% / 50.0%	31.4 / 31.1
11	@OAK	10 – 17 L	-1.9	22.2% / 50.0%	13.9% / 9.4%	3.2% / 3.4%	2.0 / 8.5	59.1% / 41.2%	9.1% / 23.5%	7.9 / 3.3	58 / 66	39.5% / 46.8%	36.2% / 45.5%	58.5% / 56.7%	4.2 / 5.8	1.7% / 1.5%	37.9% / 51.5%	26.4 / 30.7

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Nov 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis