Game Analysis
CINCINNATI (-2) vs Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has been up and down this season and last week we expected an up week and were rewarded with a 41-17 Best Bet win over Atlanta. We also were lucky to win with Cincinnati last week, as the Bengals got two defensive touchdowns to erase a 0-17 deficit and cover as a 6 point favorite with 27 consecutive points.
We’ve actually been on the Bengals pretty consistently this season and the Bengals are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS. A.J. Green is enjoying another stellar campaign, ranking 8th among wide receivers with 2.42 yards per route run while lining up in the slot on a career-high 30% of snaps. Steelers’ CB Joe Haden held Julio Jones to just 6.9 yards per target last week, Jones’ worst outing of the season, and Haden ranks 23rd in yards allowed per cover snap. Haden is unlikely to follow Green into the slot as he mostly stayed outside when Jones lined up inside a couple of weeks ago – so I suspect Cincinnati might run more plays with Green in the slot. Steelers Nickelback Mike Hilton led the NFL in 2017 with just 0.68 yards allowed per slot cover snap, but he has been below average so far this year and will need to get back to form in this game or the Steelers could be in trouble. Morgan Burnett (questionable) may also be able to support in coverage on Green if the safety can return to action this week.
James Conner is filling in for Le’Veon Bell admirably forcing 0.3 missed tackles per touch (2nd), but Bell announced he will be back in the coming weeks. Still, it’s Conner’s job for now and he’ll face a Bengals defense getting extremely unlucky on 3rd-down. Opponents are converting 53% of 3rd-downs versus Cincinnati’s defense, on pace for the highest rate in the last 15 years. The Bengals defense ranks 12th in our season-to-date metrics and should continue to improve as Vontaze Burfict reintegrates himself into the lineup and the 3rd down conversions regress towards the mean.
Cincinnati has been the better team so far this season but ratings prior to the season starting are still incorporated in our overall ratings and thus we expect the Steelers to perform better going forward. I’ll pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.8
41.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.8%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
3.5%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
23.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.4%
48.3%
-
NYPP
8.2
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.6
26.8
-
RB YPR
3.0
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
21.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.1%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.3%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
68.6
-
Early Down Succ
49.8%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
46.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.1%
46.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.2
-
Run Ratio
36.5%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
29.4
-
Game Control
1.7
-1.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.8%
56.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.7%
30.1%
-
NYPP
7.7
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.2
26.4
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.6%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.5%
30.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
59.2
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
52.1%
53.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.4%
32.5%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
28.9
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
41.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.9
-
Game Control
0.0
-0.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CLE |
21 – 21 T |
6.0 |
40.0% / 21.7% |
8.9% / 15.2% |
7.3% / 2.6% |
7.0 / 3.3 |
44.4% / 39.5% |
19.4% / 34.2% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
81 / 84 |
42.2% / 30.8% |
42.0% / 29.8% |
48.4% / 64.5% |
5.8 / 3.9 |
3.7% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 45.2% |
23.9 / 34.4 |
2 |
KC |
37 – 42 L |
-9.7 |
50.8% / 69.0% |
1.6% / 3.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.2 / 11.1 |
38.5% / 44.4% |
23.1% / 14.8% |
2.5 / 4.8 |
74 / 56 |
51.7% / 63.8% |
48.6% / 57.1% |
35.2% / 56.1% |
6.4 / 8.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
17.6% / 48.2% |
21.8 / 30.3 |
3 |
@TB |
30 – 27 W |
9.7 |
51.2% / 45.3% |
7.3% / 5.7% |
2.6% / 6.0% |
8.2 / 7.4 |
36.0% / 47.1% |
28.0% / 17.6% |
3.2 / 3.8 |
66 / 70 |
54.0% / 48.3% |
45.5% / 45.7% |
45.4% / 43.6% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
37.9% / 24.3% |
28.0 / 25.2 |
4 |
BAL |
14 – 26 L |
-6.3 |
47.9% / 47.7% |
2.1% / 4.5% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 8.1 |
16.7% / 48.5% |
25.0% / 9.1% |
1.7 / 3.0 |
60 / 77 |
50.0% / 51.9% |
41.7% / 48.1% |
42.1% / 32.7% |
4.8 / 5.9 |
1.7% / 1.3% |
20.0% / 42.9% |
21.2 / 36.8 |
5 |
ATL |
41 – 17 W |
8.9 |
84.2% / 56.8% |
0.0% / 16.2% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
13.2 / 7.1 |
50.0% / 36.8% |
15.6% / 31.6% |
4.1 / 3.3 |
51 / 56 |
51.1% / 39.6% |
62.7% / 50.0% |
39.3% / 36.1% |
7.5 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
62.7% / 33.9% |
36.1 / 20.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% / 56.4% |
6.7% / 3.6% |
3.6% / 1.9% |
7.6 / 5.5 |
65.0% / 54.5% |
20.0% / 22.7% |
5.1 / 3.4 |
50 / 77 |
64.3% / 53.3% |
62.0% / 55.8% |
38.8% / 10.0% |
6.6 / 4.9 |
2.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 28.6% |
26.2 / 33.4 |
2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% / 49.1% |
0.0% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 3.8% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
42.9% / 50.0% |
28.6% / 18.2% |
3.9 / 3.0 |
70 / 79 |
45.6% / 50.0% |
44.3% / 49.4% |
43.7% / 35.5% |
5.3 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
40.0% / 27.8% |
36.3 / 22.6 |
3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% / 40.0% |
4.3% / 4.0% |
8.9% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 5.9 |
53.8% / 47.6% |
23.1% / 21.4% |
5.1 / 5.5 |
60 / 67 |
56.0% / 46.2% |
53.3% / 44.8% |
58.1% / 54.8% |
6.6 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
21.7% / 62.7% |
23.5 / 30.5 |
4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% / 61.9% |
6.8% / 7.1% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
7.0 / 9.6 |
56.5% / 45.8% |
8.7% / 12.5% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
67 / 66 |
50.9% / 52.0% |
53.7% / 56.1% |
33.4% / 37.2% |
6.1 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.3% / 36.4% |
33.0 / 32.4 |
5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% / 77.3% |
9.1% / 13.6% |
5.0% / 10.5% |
10.4 / 7.7 |
29.6% / 45.5% |
25.9% / 13.6% |
3.9 / 5.8 |
49 / 44 |
45.7% / 48.9% |
46.9% / 61.4% |
52.9% / 25.3% |
6.8 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.3% |
55.1% / 50.0% |
22.9 / 25.5 |