Pittsburgh Steelers @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Dec 13
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 177
Odds: Buffalo Bills -1.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – Over (47) – BUFFALO (-2) vs Pittsburgh

Last week Josh Allen completed all six of his deep passing attempts for 159 yards along with two TDs and I expect him to continue looking downfield on Sunday night. Stefon Diggs is averaging 2.25 yards per route run (10th) and he will take advantage of the likely absence of Pro Bowl cornerback Joe Haden, who is in the concussion protocol and not likely to be cleared by Sunday. Cole Beasley leads the league with 774 receiving yards in the slot and he should be open in this matchup across from nickelback Mike Hilton, who is surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot.

Pass rushers for both teams could have a harder time than usual generating pressure. Pittsburgh edge defender TJ Watt leads the league with 12 sacks but he will have a battle across from RT Daryl Williams, who ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency. Steelers DE Bud Dupree ranks 17th in pass rushing efficiency but he tore his ACL in the game against the Ravens. The Bills benched RG Brian Winters (last in pass blocking efficiency) and Jon Feliciano should be an upgrade, as he’s conceded just 10 pressures in 184 pass blocking snaps. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s best pass rusher, edge defender Jerry Hughes, has 46 pressures (8th) but he will be limited by RT Chukwuma Okorafor (9th in pass blocking efficiency).

The Steelers dropped 11 passes over the last two weeks, which is five more than any other team. One of the best wide receiver groups in the NFL will not continue to drop passes at that clip the rest of the way and Ben Roethlisberger will average more than his 5.5 yppp against Baltimore and Washington (both top 10 pass defenses by our metrics). Buffalo’s defense is surrendering 6.6 yppp, which is slightly worse than average.

Our model favors the Bills by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 53.9 points, and the Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 48 points or less (Strong Opinion up to 49 points).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Steelers
  • Bills


  • Pass Plays 39.4 38.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.0% 38.9%
  • Sack Rate 3.0% 10.0%
  • Int Rate 1.1% 4.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.5% 43.7%
  • NYPP 6.2 5.4


  • Rush Plays 26.5 23.8
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.2
  • Stuff Rate 23.3% 25.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.0% 40.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.5% 47.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.1


  • All Snaps 65.9 62.1
  • Early Down Succ 46.1% 41.4%
  • Succ Rate 45.4% 40.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.7% 45.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 27.0
  • Run Ratio 40.0% 37.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.4 27.4
  • Game Control 5.9 -5.9
  • Points 29.8 17.4
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