Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – BALTIMORE (-4) over Pittsburgh

This line opened Baltimore -6 on Sunday afternoon and there has been betting support on the Pittsburgh following their win over the Titans to stay undefeated last week. I disagree with the line move because I do not believe bettors are properly pricing in the extra rest for the Ravens (1.1 points) and the addition of edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue. Baltimore’s pass rush is now arguably as talented as the Steelers’ front with Ngakoue joining Pernell McPhee, Matthew Judon, and Calais Campbell. Ngakoue had five sacks, two forced fumbles, seven quarterback hits and five tackles for loss in six games for Minnesota before being traded and our metrics have him valued at 0.8 points. The Ravens are now the league’s best defense by more than a point in our ratings.

Ngakoue’s presence will also allow the Ravens to use a standard pass rush more often, which will be important on Sunday. Ben Roethlisberger leads all QBs with the shortest average time to throw (2.27 seconds) and he is averaging 9.1 yards per pass play versus the blitz this season. Baltimore’s secondary is good enough to hold up against Pittsburgh’s wide receivers, especially if they have help over the top, because they aren’t blitzing as much as usual. Outside CBs Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters are combining to allow only 0.77 yards per cover snap and they should contain Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson.

Lamar Jackson’s potential knee issue was not a factor before the bye week, as he ran for 108 yards against the Eagles two weeks ago. The Steelers are allowing fewer than 70 yards per game to opponents on the ground this season but containing Jackson’s running is not the same as defending running backs. I also think the Ravens will be able to hit the Steelers over the top, as Pittsburgh’s defense has surrendered the 4th-highest explosive pass play percentage (27%) and Marquise Brown is one of the most dangerous deep threats in the NFL. Brown is averaging one reception with at least 20 air yards per game this season. The Steelers are allowing less than 5 yards per target to opposing tight ends and it will be a difficult matchup for Mark Andrews.

Our model favors the Ravens by 6.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, and Baltimore applies to a 62-16-1 ATS favorite off a bye situation. The model leans over the total a bit but Pittsburgh is 33-3-1 UNDER in road games when the total is 49 points or lower.

Team Stats
Game Log

Steelers
Ravens

PIT

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 40.7
Succ Pass Plays 46.5% 41.8%
Sack Rate 4.5% 12.6%
Int Rate 0.8% 3.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 23.8%
Big Pass Yards 30.2% 50.2%
NYPP 6.3 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 20.3
RB YPR 4.8 2.1
Stuff Rate 20.1% 29.9%
Succ Rush Plays 43.4% 29.1%
Big Rush Yards 57.5% 32.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 2.5

Game

All Snaps 68.0 61.0
Early Down Succ 47.3% 36.6%
Succ Rate 45.2% 37.9%
Big Yards Rate 40.7% 47.9%
Yards Per Play 5.7 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 27.2
Run Ratio 43.8% 33.1%
Starting Field Pos 30.9 30.9
Game Control 2.8 -2.8

Points 26.7 19.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	26 – 16 W	3.1	44.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.1 / 6.0	36.7% / 25.0%	20.0% / 40.0%	4.7 / 1.5	64 / 64	36.2% / 38.3%	40.6% / 42.2%	35.8% / 31.6%	5.5 / 4.5	1.6% / 0.0%	46.9% / 31.3%	30.3 / 36.3
2	DEN	26 – 21 W	7.1	45.2% / 34.8%	2.4% / 15.2%	2.4% / 2.6%	7.2 / 4.7	40.9% / 42.3%	27.3% / 23.1%	5.0 / 4.0	64 / 72	51.0% / 40.0%	43.8% / 37.5%	49.5% / 57.4%	6.4 / 4.4	1.6% / 1.4%	34.4% / 36.1%	35.1 / 29.9
3	HOU	28 – 21 W	-1.9	50.0% / 40.6%	5.3% / 15.6%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.7 / 7.2	52.6% / 20.0%	13.2% / 26.7%	4.4 / 1.9	76 / 47	54.7% / 31.4%	51.3% / 34.0%	36.7% / 54.6%	5.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 31.9%	27.2 / 26.6

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLE	38 – 6 W	16.2	57.1% / 36.6%	7.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.6 / 4.1	40.0% / 48.1%	26.7% / 18.5%	3.6 / 5.1	58 / 68	47.8% / 48.1%	48.3% / 41.2%	50.4% / 49.3%	6.5 / 4.5	1.7% / 2.9%	51.7% / 39.7%	43.8 / 21.3
2	@HOU	33 – 16 W	8.9	46.4% / 55.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.3	45.9% / 35.3%	5.4% / 17.6%	6.2 / 3.0	65 / 57	48.9% / 54.3%	46.2% / 49.1%	58.0% / 28.0%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.8%	56.9% / 29.8%	27.8 / 23.8

Pittsburgh Steelers @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Nov 1

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis