Game Analysis
BALTIMORE (-2.5/-3) vs Pittsburgh
The total for this game opened 48 and immediately went down to 47 due to the perception of what a Steelers-Ravens game is supposed to look like. The average over/under between these two teams is 40.9 in the last 11 years with John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin as head coaches. However, this season is different with both teams playing fast and passing often. Pittsburgh and Baltimore rank 5th and 3rd respectively in pace as well as 2nd and 5th respectively in pass rate during neutral situations. Our ratings have both offenses rated in the top 10 and they should improve as the Ravens have played in the worst conditions for scoring this season and the Steelers have played in the 3rd-worst conditions. The total closed at 51 when these teams met in week 4 and our model projects 51.7 points, but we won’t be playing the over here due to a strong trend on the under and unfavorable matchups for Pittsburgh’s offense.
Steelers’ RB James Conner has been excellent filling in for Le’Veon Bell, ranking 4th in the NFL with 922 yards from scrimmage this season, but it will likely be a difficult day for the second-year running back. Baltimore’s rush defense ranks 4th in our numbers and held Conner to 19 rushing yards in the first matchup between these two teams. Furthermore, the Ravens are best in the league defending pass-catchers out of the backfield in large part due to C.J. Mosley, who is allowing just 2.7 yards per target, the lowest among all linebackers (min 15 targets). Steelers right tackle Marcus Gilbert may also be out again leaving the door open for Ravens’ pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith, who ranks 5th-overall in pass rush efficiency.
Our model favors the Ravens by 2.8 points and I’ll pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.4
41.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.6%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
3.2%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.8%
23.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.4%
43.9%
-
NYPP
8.0
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
24.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
20.9%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.8%
42.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.5%
52.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
65.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.5%
46.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.3%
44.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
27.9
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
36.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.5
29.7
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.1
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
44.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
11.0%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.4%
18.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.9%
37.7%
-
NYPP
6.8
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
25.4
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
27.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.7%
35.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.3%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
69.9
60.6
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
42.8%
-
Succ Rate
49.6%
40.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.8%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
29.8
-
Run Ratio
39.7%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
28.5
-
Game Control
3.6
-3.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
21 – 21 T |
6.0 |
40.0% /
21.7% |
8.9% /
15.2% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
7.0 /
3.3 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
19.4% /
34.2% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
81 /
84 |
42.2% /
30.8% |
42.0% /
29.8% |
48.4% /
64.5% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
45.2% |
23.9 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
KC |
37 – 42 L |
-9.7 |
50.8% /
69.0% |
1.6% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
11.1 |
38.5% /
44.4% |
23.1% /
14.8% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
74 /
56 |
51.7% /
63.8% |
48.6% /
57.1% |
35.2% /
56.1% |
6.4 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
17.6% /
48.2% |
21.8 /
30.3 |
| 3 |
@TB |
30 – 27 W |
9.7 |
51.2% /
45.3% |
7.3% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
6.0% |
8.2 /
7.4 |
36.0% /
47.1% |
28.0% /
17.6% |
3.2 /
3.8 |
66 /
70 |
54.0% /
48.3% |
45.5% /
45.7% |
45.4% /
43.6% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.9% /
24.3% |
28.0 /
25.2 |
| 4 |
BAL |
14 – 26 L |
-6.3 |
47.9% /
47.7% |
2.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.1 |
16.7% /
48.5% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
1.7 /
3.0 |
60 /
77 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
41.7% /
48.1% |
42.1% /
32.7% |
4.8 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
1.3% |
20.0% /
42.9% |
21.2 /
36.8 |
| 5 |
ATL |
41 – 17 W |
8.9 |
84.2% /
56.8% |
0.0% /
16.2% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
13.2 /
7.1 |
50.0% /
36.8% |
15.6% /
31.6% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
51 /
56 |
51.1% /
39.6% |
62.7% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
36.1% |
7.5 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
62.7% /
33.9% |
36.1 /
20.3 |
| 6 |
@CIN |
28 – 21 W |
0.7 |
50.0% /
53.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.7 |
40.9% /
46.2% |
22.7% /
30.8% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
68 /
58 |
46.2% /
52.2% |
47.1% /
51.7% |
60.2% /
25.1% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
22.4% |
19.8 /
30.7 |
| 8 |
CLE |
33 – 18 W |
5.4 |
51.4% /
36.8% |
2.7% /
5.3% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
6.8 /
4.3 |
59.4% /
38.1% |
12.5% /
38.1% |
5.3 /
3.5 |
69 /
59 |
58.5% /
40.0% |
55.1% /
37.3% |
39.8% /
55.3% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
35.6% |
27.8 /
30.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
@ 
Baltimore Ravens