Game Analysis

Lean – Under (42) – ATLANTA (-3.5/-3) vs Pittsburgh

• The Falcons hired new head coach Raheem Morris, signed Kirk Cousins to a 4-year, $180 million contract this offseason, and then surprisingly used their top 10 pick on QB Michael Penix. A rookie is unlikely to be worth more than a percent or 2 in win probability, so while the decision brought up a ton of question marks, it won’t have a huge consequential effect on this team’s rating in 2024.
• Cousins suffered a tear in his right Achilles tendon in week 8 last year and I will be monitoring his deep passing out of the gates to see how well he is pushing off.
• To protect Kirk, the Falcons have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and they bring back the same 5 guys that finished 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency in 2023.
• Pittsburgh’s pass rush looks like it could be the best in the league headlined by TJ Watt, who led the NFL with 19.0 sacks last year, and opposite edge rusher Alex Highsmith, who was 13th in pressures. Interior defender Cameron Heyward didn’t look right last season after undergoing groin surgery in September. Heyward averaged just 1.7 pressures per game after coming back in week 9. Which paled in comparison to his 3.4 pressures per game in 2022. Heyward should be better this year with health.
• The Steelers defense is going to be great versus the run after adding LB Patrick Queen to a unit that finished 5th in rush success rate allowed in 2023. In coverage, they’ll continue those Cover 3 looks they ran at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL and the blitzes they called at the 6th-highest rate.
• Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson comes over from the Rams, so I expect a lot of 11 personnel for a unit that features 6 first round picks.
• Pittsburgh was a playoff fraud last year as they were only the 5th team in history to win 10 games with a point differential of -20 or worse.
• The Steelers got 5.8 yppp last year from the quarterbacks. Justin Fields, who gets the start today with Russell Wilson injured, only averaged 5.5 yppp last season in Chicago. He does add a running element that is valuable but I don’t really think they’re upgrading much at quarterback.
• It looks like Pittsburgh’s offensive line is going to be starting two rookies, which would normally be a red flag for pass protection, but I don’t think they’ll be a downgrade there given that they’ll likely be protected by play action more than most. C Zach Frazier is replacing C Mason Cole, who ranked 5th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency. LT Dan Moore surrendered a league-high 10.8% pressure rate in 2023 so Troy Fautanu will be a pass-blocking upgrade if he’s anything better than worst in the NFL.
• Raheem Morris is coming off perhaps his best season as a defensive play caller as the Rams started in market priors 2 points worse than average (29th) with so many young players surrounding Aaron Donald and ended last season 0.7 points above average (13th).
• Atlanta’s defense made two huge additions in August with the signing of four-time All-Pro safety Justin Simmons and edge defender Matthew Judon, who ranked 7th in pass rushing efficiency in his last healthy season in 2022. Those two took the Falcons defense from average in my priors to clearly in the top 10.
• Our model has the Falcons favored by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 41.3 points. Pittsburgh tends to play conservatively away from home and the Steelers have been 50-20-2 Under in all regular season road games the last 9 seasons. I’ll Lean Under.