Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: This was released as a Strong Opinion earlier in the week when the line was just 4 points. I still lean with Philly at -6.5.

Strong Opinion – Philadelphia (-4) over WASHINGTON

The Eagles lost right tackle Lane Johnson and were down to one healthy wide receiver in the second half last Monday night yet still managed to scrape out an overtime win versus the Giants. The Eagles gained less than 5 yards per play last week and they are now without any above replacement-level wide receivers and their Pro Bowl tackle. Philadelphia is targeting tight ends on 37.6% of passes (2nd-most) and the share will likely increase as they go on without Alshon Jeffery. Zach Ertz will likely move off the line as he has run 314 routes from a detached alignment this season, the most among any tight end. Ertz will benefit from the likely absence of Washington’s best cornerback Quinton Dunbar, who is conceding less than 1 yard per cover snap this year. Third tight end Joshua Perkins looked capable in gaining 1.85 yards per route run last week and Dallas Goedert will likely play a major role as well. The Redskins will be without Pro Bowl edge rusher Ryan Kerrigan so the loss of Johnson isn’t as significant in this matchup. Matt Ioannidis has 8.5 sacks (19th) but he will be neutralized by right guard Brandon Brooks, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency. I expect Doug Pederson to dial up some trick plays as well given the offensive injuries. In 2019, teams are gaining a half yard per attempt more on trick play passes with 20 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The Eagles have 111 runs up the middle this season (3rd-most) but the Redskins have one of the league’s best interior defensive lines versus the rush with Matt Ioannidis, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen combining for 63 run stops. You’d think that Peterson is wise enough to run more to the outside but not having Johnson at left tackle is an issue in the run game too.

Philadelphia’s defense could be exposed downfield on Sunday. Terry McLaurin has 10 deep ball receptions (9th) and Ronald Darby is one of only two qualifying cornerbacks surrendering more than 2 yards per cover snap. However, Dwayne Haskins has connected on just 5 of his attempts with 20+ air yards and the rookie quarterback may not be able to exploit the weakness in the secondary. Interior defender Fletcher Cox has 50 pressures (4th) but he will be neutralized by right guard Brandon Scherff, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency. However, right tackle Morgan Moses will be exposed by edge rusher Brandon Graham, whose 59 pressures rank 11th. Derrius Guice has provided a spark with 5.8 yards per rush in limited action this season but the young running back has now been added to the IR with an MCL sprain and Adrian Peterson may be too old to be as effective with an increased workload.

Much has been made about the Eagles injuries at wide receiver and the loss of Lane Johnson, but injuries to Ryan Kerrigan and Quinton Dunbar are also crucial for Washington’s defense. There’s a lot on Carson Wentz’s shoulders but we do not think that it is likely Philadelphia’s playoff hopes die at the hands of the Redskins. Our model favors the Eagles by 8.0 points with a predicted total of 37.7 points after accounting for all the injuries, so there is certainly value on the Eagles here. Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at -5 or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Redskins

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.2 37.6
Succ Pass Plays 48.3% 41.8%
Sack Rate 6.3% 8.1%
Int Rate 1.5% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 22.4%
Big Pass Yards 37.3% 44.8%
NYPP 5.8 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 28.1 22.6
RB YPR 4.1 3.6
Stuff Rate 19.0% 28.7%
Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 41.6%
Big Rush Yards 35.2% 43.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.8

Game

All Snaps 68.3 60.2
Early Down Succ 50.5% 43.6%
Succ Rate 48.7% 41.6%
Big Yards Rate 38.0% 45.5%
Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 27.6
Run Ratio 41.4% 37.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 29.4
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 22.8 23.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	32 – 27 W	-4.0	55.0% / 47.8%	2.5% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.0	45.2% / 30.8%	22.6% / 23.1%	4.0 / 2.2	71 / 59	47.1% / 44.2%	50.7% / 44.1%	42.0% / 40.2%	6.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 22.0%	31.4 / 23.5
2	@ATL	20 – 24 L	-4.4	43.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.3%	4.2% / 7.0%	4.6 / 7.0	33.3% / 47.1%	19.0% / 23.5%	2.3 / 3.4	72 / 61	35.3% / 53.1%	40.3% / 49.2%	15.0% / 46.6%	4.0 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	29.2% / 27.9%	38.5 / 23.4
3	DET	24 – 27 L	-4.8	43.6% / 40.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	46.7% / 35.7%	10.0% / 39.3%	4.2 / 3.1	69 / 60	44.4% / 38.6%	44.9% / 38.3%	54.4% / 43.2%	5.4 / 4.8	2.9% / 0.0%	43.5% / 46.7%	25.6 / 38.9
4	@GB	34 – 27 W	0.2	55.6% / 48.1%	0.0% / 1.9%	0.0% / 1.9%	5.9 / 7.7	69.7% / 55.0%	6.1% / 30.0%	5.3 / 3.9	60 / 74	67.3% / 50.8%	63.3% / 50.0%	31.3% / 39.5%	5.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.4%	55.0% / 27.0%	31.9 / 21.0
5	NYJ	31 – 6 W	16.1	43.3% / 25.0%	3.3% / 27.8%	0.0% / 7.7%	6.0 / 1.7	34.5% / 42.1%	34.5% / 26.3%	2.9 / 3.5	59 / 55	42.9% / 35.0%	39.0% / 30.9%	44.2% / 25.0%	4.5 / 2.3	1.7% / 1.8%	49.2% / 34.5%	35.2 / 27.1
6	@MIN	20 – 38 L	-10.8	53.5% / 63.3%	4.7% / 3.3%	4.9% / 3.4%	6.8 / 10.8	59.1% / 37.1%	13.6% / 34.3%	4.9 / 3.5	65 / 65	62.0% / 54.7%	55.4% / 49.2%	53.0% / 52.3%	6.2 / 6.9	1.5% / 1.5%	33.8% / 53.8%	26.2 / 33.3
7	@DAL	10 – 37 L	-15.2	44.8% / 60.0%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 3.7%	5.8 / 7.1	42.9% / 44.4%	21.4% / 16.7%	4.1 / 5.3	57 / 66	45.7% / 49.0%	43.9% / 51.5%	47.0% / 39.6%	5.0 / 6.1	5.3% / 0.0%	49.1% / 54.5%	18.8 / 41.7
8	@BUF	31 – 13 W	5.2	48.1% / 31.6%	11.1% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 4.1	48.8% / 50.0%	29.3% / 35.0%	5.3 / 4.9	68 / 58	50.0% / 39.0%	48.5% / 37.9%	57.7% / 44.3%	5.5 / 4.4	1.5% / 1.7%	60.3% / 34.5%	36.4 / 29.4
9	CHI	22 – 14 W	7.7	51.2% / 25.0%	9.3% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 4.3	51.4% / 50.0%	14.3% / 33.3%	4.2 / 3.4	78 / 42	53.4% / 40.6%	51.3% / 35.7%	20.9% / 61.0%	4.8 / 3.9	0.0% / 2.4%	44.9% / 42.9%	26.9 / 28.9
11	NE	10 – 17 L	-0.8	37.8% / 38.8%	11.1% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 4.6	57.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 22.7%	3.9 / 3.4	66 / 71	51.0% / 40.7%	43.9% / 38.0%	42.4% / 21.5%	3.9 / 4.2	1.5% / 0.0%	31.8% / 31.0%	17.2 / 31.0
12	SEA	9 – 17 L	-6.8	56.3% / 29.0%	6.3% / 19.4%	4.4% / 4.0%	5.0 / 5.6	52.2% / 42.3%	21.7% / 19.2%	4.6 / 6.7	71 / 57	60.3% / 35.7%	54.9% / 35.1%	22.7% / 70.1%	4.8 / 6.1	4.2% / 1.8%	32.4% / 45.6%	26.0 / 34.7
13	@MIA	31 – 37 L	3.8	47.9% / 55.8%	4.2% / 7.0%	2.2% / 2.5%	6.1 / 8.2	52.6% / 25.0%	0.0% / 50.0%	4.8 / 2.9	67 / 63	49.1% / 44.7%	49.3% / 46.0%	28.0% / 48.9%	5.8 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	28.4% / 31.7%	35.6 / 24.7
14	NYG	23 – 17 W	-6.7	47.2% / 28.1%	5.7% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.7	46.9% / 45.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.7 / 3.7	85 / 52	48.4% / 41.0%	47.1% / 34.6%	35.6% / 60.0%	4.9 / 4.9	1.2% / 0.0%	37.6% / 38.5%	26.9 / 24.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	27 – 32 L	4.0	47.8% / 55.0%	2.2% / 2.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.0 / 7.8	30.8% / 45.2%	23.1% / 22.6%	2.2 / 4.0	59 / 71	44.2% / 47.1%	44.1% / 50.7%	40.2% / 42.0%	6.7 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	22.0% / 43.7%	23.5 / 31.4
2	DAL	21 – 31 L	-4.6	57.9% / 61.3%	2.6% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.5 / 8.4	41.2% / 64.7%	17.6% / 8.8%	2.8 / 6.3	55 / 65	59.5% / 64.2%	52.7% / 63.1%	22.4% / 43.5%	4.6 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	30.9% / 52.3%	30.7 / 19.3
3	CHI	15 – 31 L	-13.9	57.4% / 55.9%	8.5% / 8.8%	7.0% / 3.2%	6.1 / 6.1	57.1% / 41.7%	19.0% / 20.8%	3.3 / 3.8	68 / 58	61.8% / 46.7%	57.4% / 50.0%	25.3% / 28.5%	5.2 / 5.1	2.9% / 0.0%	30.9% / 41.4%	28.7 / 36.9
4	@NYG	3 – 24 L	-13.4	35.5% / 54.8%	9.7% / 0.0%	14.3% / 6.5%	3.9 / 7.3	23.5% / 48.6%	17.6% / 18.9%	3.2 / 4.4	48 / 68	35.1% / 49.1%	31.3% / 51.5%	41.5% / 48.8%	3.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 2.9%	35.4% / 54.4%	25.9 / 26.8
5	NE	7 – 33 L	-9.4	30.3% / 48.9%	18.2% / 8.5%	3.7% / 2.3%	2.3 / 6.6	45.0% / 44.4%	15.0% / 25.9%	7.3 / 4.8	53 / 74	42.9% / 51.7%	35.8% / 47.3%	50.5% / 49.3%	4.2 / 6.0	1.9% / 0.0%	37.7% / 36.5%	23.8 / 32.4
6	@MIA	17 – 16 W	6.1	40.0% / 33.3%	0.0% / 10.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	6.6 / 3.9	45.5% / 52.4%	18.2% / 19.0%	4.4 / 4.0	58 / 69	50.0% / 42.3%	43.1% / 39.1%	42.8% / 28.0%	5.4 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	56.9% / 30.4%	27.3 / 28.3
7	SF	0 – 9 L	-1.5	26.7% / 34.8%	20.0% / 8.7%	0.0% / 4.8%	3.3 / 6.3	38.5% / 46.2%	23.1% / 25.6%	4.0 / 3.5	41 / 62	35.5% / 40.9%	34.1% / 41.9%	38.3% / 41.0%	3.8 / 4.6	2.4% / 0.0%	63.4% / 62.9%	23.8 / 32.5
8	@MIN	9 – 19 L	-4.9	56.0% / 48.3%	16.0% / 10.3%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.4	62.5% / 44.7%	25.0% / 18.4%	5.3 / 4.2	41 / 67	64.7% / 44.9%	58.5% / 46.3%	34.7% / 47.7%	5.3 / 6.5	2.4% / 1.5%	39.0% / 56.7%	27.1 / 27.0
9	@BUF	9 – 24 L	-8.5	34.6% / 45.5%	15.4% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.5 / 6.6	34.8% / 53.8%	30.4% / 17.9%	5.5 / 3.1	49 / 61	40.5% / 54.5%	34.7% / 50.8%	42.8% / 48.9%	5.0 / 4.4	0.0% / 0.0%	46.9% / 63.9%	27.3 / 34.9
11	NYJ	17 – 34 L	-14.5	34.1% / 51.5%	14.6% / 6.1%	2.9% / 3.2%	4.2 / 8.6	45.0% / 45.5%	35.0% / 24.2%	2.7 / 3.5	61 / 66	38.6% / 51.0%	37.7% / 48.5%	57.8% / 43.0%	3.7 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.5%	32.8% / 50.0%	34.6 / 35.3
12	DET	19 – 16 W	2.2	33.3% / 35.9%	9.1% / 15.4%	3.3% / 9.1%	4.4 / 4.8	33.3% / 53.1%	16.7% / 15.6%	3.6 / 5.5	57 / 71	36.6% / 44.6%	33.3% / 43.7%	49.6% / 37.4%	4.0 / 5.1	1.8% / 1.4%	42.1% / 45.1%	30.8 / 32.1
13	@CAR	29 – 21 W	-1.9	33.3% / 39.6%	16.7% / 13.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	3.8 / 4.0	66.7% / 30.0%	20.0% / 30.0%	8.3 / 3.3	60 / 73	56.3% / 38.2%	50.0% / 37.0%	64.9% / 29.9%	6.0 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.4%	50.0% / 27.4%	33.8 / 24.8
14	@GB	15 – 20 L	-9.0	35.5% / 43.8%	12.9% / 12.5%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.5 / 5.2	60.7% / 60.7%	25.0% / 17.9%	4.3 / 6.2	59 / 60	51.1% / 57.1%	47.5% / 51.7%	37.4% / 54.5%	4.4 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.7%	47.5% / 46.7%	21.5 / 34.0

Philadelphia Eagles @

Washington Redskins

Sun, Dec 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis