Game Analysis

Philadelphia (-5) vs TAMPA BAY

· Baker Mayfield is performing at an unsustainable clip to start 2023. Mayfield is averaging 8.7 yppp on 3rd down with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Mayfield has also completed 71% of his attempts under pressure this season which is well above his career completion percentage against pressure, which was 45% coming into this year.

· Eagles’ backup cornerback Josh Jobe has surrendered 8.8 yards per target but it looks like Philadelphia’s secondary will get back starter James Bradberry, who ranked 7th in PFF coverage grade last season. Bradberry will contain Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 0.91 EPA/target (10th).

· However, Eagles backup nickelback Mario Goodrich has allowed 0.92 more yards per cover snap in the slot this season than starter Avonte Maddox did in 2022. Maddox suffered a season-ending pectoral injury against the Vikings. Goodrich will provide a favorable matchup on the inside for WR Chris Godwin, who gained 1.64 yards per route run in the slot last year (10th).

· Tampa Bay left tackle Tristan Wirfs has conceded just 2 pressures (10th) and he will shut down edge defender Josh Sweat, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Philadelphia DT Fletcher Cox has 6 pressures (11th) and he will be the first real test for rookie RG Cody Mauch, who ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Meanwhile, Buccaneers LG Matt Feiler and C Robert Hainsey have surrendered 10 combined pressures. Fieler and Hainsey will not hold up against interior defender Jalen Carter, who ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Eagles center Jason Kelce has not allowed a pressure this year and he will limit Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 13th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· However, Jalen Hurts likely won’t be dropping back too often on Monday night. Todd Bowles’s defense is conceding a 41% dropback success rate (7th) and Philadelphia’s offense should pound the rock as they are averaging 0.03 EPA/rush (7th).

· The Eagles quietly have a league-low 37% dropback success rate to start 2023 despite Jalen Hurts 10.3% completion percentage above expectation which confirms they’ve suffered a major downgrade at offensive coordinator after losing Shane Steichen.

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 6.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.3 points, but Tampa Bay applies to a 60-19-1 ATS Monday night home team situation.