Philadelphia Eagles @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Jan 16
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 145
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Under (49) TAMPA BAY vs Philadelphia

Strong Opinion – TAMPA BAY (-7 -115) over Philadelphia

We released this on Wednesday morning to get ahead of the weather, setting up to be a nasty afternoon in Tampa Bay. The wind is looking like a steady mid-20 mph and the conditions for scoring will be 5.0 points worse than average by our metrics with the current forecast.

The Eagles have a unique defense as they are one of the only teams in the league to generate more pressure from the interior than the edge and they also keep everything in front of them. Philadelphia’s defense allows just a 6.4-yard average depth of target, which is a half yard lower than any other defense in the NFL. Tom Brady averaged only 6.1 air yards per attempt in week 6 versus the Eagles, nearly two yards below his full season mark (8.0).

Brady has historically struggled against interior pressure, and the veteran quarterback has learned to get the ball out quickly to avoid elite defensive tackles. Brady did not take a sack and had a 2.26-second average time to throw in three games against defenses skewed towards interior pass rush (Philadelphia, Washington, New York Giants). Meanwhile, Brady’s average time to throw was 2.38 seconds in all other games. Brady had a league-leading 35 deep completions this season, but I’d be surprised if he connected on more than one in this matchup, instead he’ll put together long drives with passes near the line of scrimmage. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is averaging 2.09 yards per route run (3rd) and Philadelphia’s defense has surrendered 1029 yards to opposing TEs (27th).

The Eagles rush offense is the best in the NFL, nearly two standard deviations better than average. Tampa Bay’s defense conceded only 3.8 yards per rush in 2020 (2nd) but this season the Bucs have been a below average rush defense by our numbers. Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks with 784 rushing yards and Philadelphia’s offense should be able to sustain a couple clock-chewing drives with the ground game. Pro Bowl edge defender Shaquil Barrett ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be shut down by Eagles RT Lane Johnson, who did not allow a sack all season. Interior defender Vita Vea has a 10.6% pressure rate and LG Landon Dickerson ranks 47th in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying guards, so Hurts will likely feel pressure up the middle.

The wind is likely to hurt Tampa Bay more than it hurts Philly’s run-oriented attack, but our model favors the Buccaneers by 10.7 points with that factored in, with a predicted total of 42.3 points. The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or more (Strong Opinion Under 45.5 or more).

The line on Tampa Bay is down to -7 -115 and the model favors the Bucs by 10.7 after factoring in the wind, which is likely to hurt Tampa’s pass-heavy offense more than it will hurt Philly’s run-oriented attack. That’s normally enough value to make the Bucs a Best Bet but the bad scoring conditions do add to the variance. Tampa Bay is a Strong Opinion at -7 -115 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Buccaneers


  • Pass Plays 30.82 36.35
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.1% 49.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.7% 4.7%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.0% 14.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.2% 28.4%
  • NYPP 6.50 6.08


  • Rush Plays 32.41 26.94
  • RB YPR 4.58 4.01
  • Stuff Rate 18.7% 23.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 57.5% 49.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.0% 37.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.92 4.00


  • All Snaps 63.24 63.29
  • Early Down Succ 53.3% 52.1%
  • Succ Rate 51.0% 49.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.8% 31.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.69 5.20
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.34 28.48
  • Run Ratio 51.3% 42.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.71 28.90
  • Game Control 0.07 -0.07
  • Points 26.12 22.65
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