Philadelphia Eagles @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Oct 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 465
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -7, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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PITTSBURGH (-7) vs Philadelphia

Lean – Over (44/44.5)

Both of these teams thrive off their pass rush but there’s reason to believe Carson Wentz and Ben Roethlisberger will have more time than most might expect on Sunday. Matt Feiler and David DeCastro are an excellent guard tandem for the Steelers and should contain Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox on the inside. Eagles RT Lane Johnson is playing hurt but has still surrendered only 1 pressure all season and has a shot of slowing down the league’s leader is pass rushing efficiency, TJ Watt. Bud Dupree ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency on the other side but Jordan Mailata has done a solid job filling in for Jason Peters – allowing only 2 pressures in 53 pass blocking snaps.

Nickell Robey-Coleman is usually a reliable nickelback but this year he has struggled in Philadelphia’s man-defensive scheme, surrendering 1.62 yards per slot cover snap (6th-worst) and JuJu Smith-Schuster could have a big afternoon on the inside. However, I think the Eagles’ aggressiveness has a good chance to cause some problems for Roethlisberger because he is averaging a career-low in air yards.

Pittsburgh’s defense has been solid but the opponents they’ve faced are a combined 1-11 and that lone win was against the Jets. The Steelers shut down the Giants in the opening week and the Broncos with backup QB Jeff Driskel before surrendering 5.5 yppl to the Texans.

Pittsburgh has had extra time to prepare for this game, which has some value, but our model favors the Steelers by just 5.0 points with a predicted total of 46.3. The model shows value on Philly but the Steelers apply to a 79-27-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation. I’ll pass the side but I’d lean over here if the rain holds off.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Steelers


  • Pass Plays 47.7 38.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 38.8% 50.4%
  • Sack Rate 7.3% 9.3%
  • Int Rate 4.6% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 21.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.3% 31.5%
  • NYPP 4.6 6.3


  • Rush Plays 26.3 31.0
  • RB YPR 4.1 3.1
  • Stuff Rate 13.4% 25.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.6% 44.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.8% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.3


  • All Snaps 74.0 69.0
  • Early Down Succ 45.0% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.9% 47.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.2% 34.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.5 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.2 27.0
  • Run Ratio 35.0% 45.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.1 33.9
  • Game Control -1.4 1.4
  • Points 19.7 29.0
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