Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Philadelphia (-7.5 Even) over NY GIANTS

• Philadelphia has a +0.01 net EPA/play against a gauntlet of opponents. The Eagles have played the Broncos, Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, and Cowboys. All five opponents are positive in net yppl. Philadelphia’s schedule has been 3.4 points harder than average through the first 5 weeks, the most difficult in the NFL according to our metrics. I expect them to blow out a Giants team rated 5 points worse than average by our metrics while missing their top two wide receivers.
• New York WR Wan’Dale Robinson is the only remaining starter, and he will be shut down on the inside lined up across from nickelback Cooper DeJean, who is conceding 0.68 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• Jaxson Dart is averaging only 4.3 yppp, and the Eagles will shut him down as long as they can keep him in the pocket.
• Giants RT Jermaine Eluemunor ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency, and head coach Brian Daboll indicated that his status will be determined close to game time, but he’s at risk of missing the game.
• Philadelphia’s offense had only 9 handoffs last week, and their highest pass rate over expected of the last four seasons at +19%.
• The Eagles can continue airing it out because their RPO and QB run sequencing directly attacks New York defensive coordinator Shane Bowen’s structural weak points, namely his 3rd-highest Cover 1 rate. Philadelphia’s offense is averaging 16% more yppp versus Cover 1 than other coverages this season after averaging 28% more against Cover 1 last year.
• Saquon Barkley also has a favorable matchup on the ground as the Giants are surrendering 0.07 EPA/rush (30th).
• Our model favors the Eagles by 8.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.0 points, and Philly applies to a 44-13 ATS Thursday night favorite situation.

Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at -7.5 -110 odds or better.