Game Analysis
Lean – Philadelphia (+8.5) over NEW ORLEANS
The defending Super Bowl Champions are sitting at 4-5 and have hardly any room for error the rest of the season. Beating the Saints in the Superdome is a tall challenge and I have no doubt that the Eagles will give a good effort here as they try to salvage their season. Philadelphia is 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games as an underdog and responded to the challenge a few times in last year’s post-season run. Still, it’s unlikely that Philly wins this game – although I do think it can be competitive.
New Orleans has the 7th-rated rush defense in our numbers and I expect Philadelphia to focus on the passing game as they haven’t found a consistent rusher since Jay Ajayi was lost for the year. It looks like All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson will miss this game too, which is problematic for the Eagles. Backup RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai allowed 4 pressures last week and he’ll be lined up across from All-Pro Cameron Jordan, who should have a productive game if Johnson doesn’t play. Carson Wentz will likely see pressure and his favorite safety valve Zach Ertz probably won’t have his best performance. Ertz is currently on pace for 133 receptions and 1403 yards, both of which would be the all-time records for a tight end, but the Saints concede just 6.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th).
New Orleans’ potent offense will be without Terron Armstead, who’s one of 3 tackles with at least 300 pass blocking snaps yet to allow a sack this season. Armstead is a key cog in a Saints offensive line that is ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, but he will likely miss multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. Brandon Graham and Michael Bennett, both among the 5 edge rushers to record at least 40 pressures thus far this season, should cause havoc on Drew Brees’ blindside with Armstead out. The Eagles, however, will be without top cornerback Ronald Darby and Saints’ star WR Michael Thomas, whose gaining a league-best 3.07 yards per route run, should be in line for another superb outing.
Philadelphia has played 16-straight games without losing by more than a touchdown and our model makes them a 6.7-point underdog in this game. I’ll lean with the Eagles plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.7
41.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
48.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.9%
43.4%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.3
20.3
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.2%
24.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
46.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.2%
48.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.2%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
51.3%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.8%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
27.2
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
32.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
28.5
-
Game Control
0.4
-0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
60.4%
56.3%
-
Sack Rate
2.8%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
0.5%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.0%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.1%
45.7%
-
NYPP
8.3
8.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
32.3
22.3
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
13.8%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
43.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.5%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
57.9
-
Early Down Succ
59.0%
52.8%
-
Succ Rate
55.4%
51.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.2%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.6
28.9
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
38.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
33.0
26.0
-
Game Control
4.6
-4.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
18 – 12 W |
-0.9 |
32.4% / 31.9% |
5.4% / 8.5% |
2.9% / 2.3% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
53.6% / 44.4% |
21.4% / 27.8% |
4.1 / 4.1 |
65 / 65 |
40.4% / 38.8% |
41.5% / 35.4% |
20.6% / 49.5% |
3.6 / 4.6 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 27.7% |
22.2 / 35.2 |
2 |
@TB |
21 – 27 L |
-11.1 |
42.0% / 60.0% |
6.0% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
6.4 / 11.2 |
54.2% / 25.0% |
20.8% / 41.7% |
3.8 / 1.8 |
74 / 59 |
48.1% / 48.9% |
45.9% / 45.8% |
36.2% / 45.3% |
5.6 / 7.4 |
2.7% / 1.7% |
32.4% / 40.7% |
25.5 / 27.2 |
3 |
IND |
20 – 16 W |
0.6 |
47.6% / 39.5% |
11.9% / 4.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 3.3 |
60.0% / 38.5% |
28.6% / 23.1% |
4.3 / 5.2 |
77 / 56 |
55.6% / 45.2% |
53.2% / 39.3% |
34.0% / 46.9% |
4.9 / 3.7 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
45.5% / 23.2% |
21.6 / 36.1 |
4 |
@TEN |
23 – 26 L |
2.6 |
46.3% / 47.8% |
7.4% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
5.8 / 7.1 |
36.4% / 39.1% |
13.6% / 34.8% |
5.3 / 3.1 |
76 / 69 |
45.9% / 47.9% |
43.4% / 44.9% |
41.0% / 38.9% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
28.9% / 33.3% |
28.0 / 24.4 |
5 |
MIN |
21 – 23 L |
-7.0 |
80.8% / 74.2% |
11.5% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.9 / 9.6 |
58.8% / 44.0% |
11.8% / 20.0% |
4.8 / 3.2 |
43 / 56 |
63.6% / 62.5% |
72.1% / 60.7% |
51.9% / 48.8% |
8.5 / 6.7 |
4.7% / 1.8% |
39.5% / 44.6% |
30.9 / 27.0 |
6 |
@NYG |
34 – 13 W |
14.8 |
48.6% / 34.0% |
2.7% / 8.5% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.3 / 5.4 |
51.6% / 52.9% |
16.1% / 17.6% |
3.5 / 8.6 |
68 / 64 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
50.0% / 39.1% |
32.7% / 58.4% |
5.6 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 26.6% |
31.4 / 25.5 |
7 |
CAR |
17 – 21 L |
6.8 |
51.2% / 51.2% |
9.8% / 4.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.9 / 6.1 |
54.2% / 61.1% |
25.0% / 16.7% |
2.4 / 6.8 |
65 / 59 |
57.1% / 57.8% |
52.3% / 54.2% |
37.7% / 50.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
36.9% / 30.5% |
19.8 / 26.3 |
8 |
@JAC |
24 – 18 W |
2.2 |
52.9% / 44.4% |
11.8% / 8.9% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 5.9 |
41.9% / 64.7% |
12.9% / 17.6% |
4.4 / 4.1 |
65 / 62 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
47.7% / 50.0% |
62.6% / 34.3% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
1.5% / 1.6% |
47.7% / 27.4% |
26.9 / 29.0 |
10 |
DAL |
20 – 27 L |
-4.0 |
55.6% / 50.0% |
4.4% / 10.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 6.0 |
56.3% / 46.4% |
31.3% / 21.4% |
4.4 / 6.1 |
61 / 68 |
61.2% / 47.1% |
55.7% / 48.5% |
32.1% / 50.2% |
6.9 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.2% / 41.2% |
32.3 / 25.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% / 64.3% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 14.9 |
69.2% / 43.2% |
23.1% / 18.9% |
3.3 / 3.1 |
59 / 65 |
77.6% / 56.5% |
72.9% / 52.3% |
36.4% / 62.7% |
8.1 / 8.2 |
3.4% / 0.0% |
22.0% / 56.9% |
25.9 / 26.4 |
2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% / 48.5% |
7.9% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 3.3% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
37.5% / 33.3% |
25.0% / 14.8% |
2.6 / 3.4 |
62 / 60 |
60.4% / 43.5% |
53.2% / 41.7% |
30.8% / 43.4% |
4.5 / 5.5 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 45.0% |
35.0 / 28.4 |
3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% / 63.2% |
2.0% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 9.4 |
53.6% / 21.7% |
14.3% / 43.5% |
5.1 / 2.1 |
78 / 61 |
57.4% / 52.1% |
55.1% / 47.5% |
37.9% / 36.3% |
6.9 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 37.7% |
29.8 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% / 56.8% |
2.9% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
48.6% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 18.8% |
4.9 / 4.1 |
70 / 60 |
51.0% / 58.3% |
45.7% / 55.0% |
55.4% / 29.3% |
5.6 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
50.0% / 26.7% |
33.9 / 22.5 |
5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
71.4% / 69.2% |
7.1% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
12.5 / 9.4 |
36.1% / 50.0% |
5.6% / 27.8% |
2.8 / 2.2 |
64 / 44 |
54.9% / 48.8% |
51.6% / 61.4% |
54.3% / 51.2% |
7.0 / 6.4 |
1.6% / 2.3% |
56.3% / 40.9% |
36.2 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BAL |
24 – 23 W |
-1.7 |
45.2% / 46.3% |
3.2% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 6.7 |
50.0% / 52.2% |
12.5% / 30.4% |
3.4 / 3.3 |
71 / 64 |
48.0% / 50.0% |
47.9% / 48.4% |
31.2% / 19.7% |
4.8 / 5.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
56.3% / 35.9% |
27.6 / 21.8 |
8 |
@MIN |
30 – 20 W |
5.9 |
62.5% / 56.8% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
4.2% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 7.7 |
48.3% / 40.9% |
13.8% / 31.8% |
3.7 / 3.9 |
53 / 66 |
56.8% / 50.9% |
54.7% / 51.5% |
34.1% / 40.2% |
5.1 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
54.7% / 33.3% |
38.3 / 21.6 |
9 |
LA |
45 – 35 W |
6.9 |
58.3% / 55.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
9.6 / 9.8 |
44.4% / 36.8% |
11.1% / 21.1% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
72 / 59 |
51.9% / 53.1% |
51.4% / 49.2% |
36.6% / 48.0% |
6.8 / 8.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 32.2% |
31.4 / 30.0 |
10 |
@CIN |
51 – 14 W |
21.4 |
70.4% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
9.8 / 6.7 |
64.0% / 62.5% |
10.0% / 6.3% |
4.9 / 6.9 |
77 / 42 |
72.9% / 61.8% |
66.2% / 52.4% |
45.3% / 61.3% |
6.6 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
64.9% / 38.1% |
38.8 / 25.9 |