Philadelphia Eagles @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: New Orleans Saints -8.5, Total: 56

Game Analysis

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Lean – Philadelphia (+8.5) over NEW ORLEANS

The defending Super Bowl Champions are sitting at 4-5 and have hardly any room for error the rest of the season. Beating the Saints in the Superdome is a tall challenge and I have no doubt that the Eagles will give a good effort here as they try to salvage their season. Philadelphia is 6-1 straight up in their last 7 games as an underdog and responded to the challenge a few times in last year’s post-season run. Still, it’s unlikely that Philly wins this game – although I do think it can be competitive.

New Orleans has the 7th-rated rush defense in our numbers and I expect Philadelphia to focus on the passing game as they haven’t found a consistent rusher since Jay Ajayi was lost for the year. It looks like All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson will miss this game too, which is problematic for the Eagles. Backup RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai allowed 4 pressures last week and he’ll be lined up across from All-Pro Cameron Jordan, who should have a productive game if Johnson doesn’t play. Carson Wentz will likely see pressure and his favorite safety valve Zach Ertz probably won’t have his best performance. Ertz is currently on pace for 133 receptions and 1403 yards, both of which would be the all-time records for a tight end, but the Saints concede just 6.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (5th).

New Orleans’ potent offense will be without Terron Armstead, who’s one of 3 tackles with at least 300 pass blocking snaps yet to allow a sack this season. Armstead is a key cog in a Saints offensive line that is ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency, but he will likely miss multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. Brandon Graham and Michael Bennett, both among the 5 edge rushers to record at least 40 pressures thus far this season, should cause havoc on Drew Brees’ blindside with Armstead out. The Eagles, however, will be without top cornerback Ronald Darby and Saints’ star WR Michael Thomas, whose gaining a league-best 3.07 yards per route run, should be in line for another superb outing.

Philadelphia has played 16-straight games without losing by more than a touchdown and our model makes them a 6.7-point underdog in this game. I’ll lean with the Eagles plus the points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Saints
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.7 41.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 48.1%
  • Sack Rate 7.9% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 1.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 18.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.9% 43.4%
  • NYPP 6.8 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.3 20.3
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 20.2% 24.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.9% 46.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.2% 48.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 62.0
  • Early Down Succ 52.2% 49.2%
  • Succ Rate 51.3% 46.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.8% 46.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.8 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 27.2
  • Run Ratio 38.4% 32.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.5 28.5
  • Game Control 0.4 -0.4
 
  • Points 22.0 20.3
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