Philadelphia Eagles @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Dec 1
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Miami Dolphins -10.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Philadelphia (-10.5) vs MIAMI

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been significantly worse in the last three games without top wide receiver Preston Williams – averaging just 4.8 yards per pass play with his deep ball rate dropping an alarming 10 percentage points. The Eagles have a 51% pass rush win rate led by Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox and Miami’s offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency. Fitzpatrick could face more pressure than he has in any start this season, which will further hinder his performance. The Dolphins ground game has gotten worse recently as well without Mark Walton. Kalen Ballage has forced only 3 missed tackles and our numbers indicate Miami’s rushing attack has been a full point per game worse over the last 3 weeks.

Philadelphia’s offense is likely to return WR Alshon Jeffery, Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks, and Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson on Sunday. The Eagles wide receivers outside of DeSean Jackson and Alson Jeffery have combined for just 0.72 yards per route run so getting Jeffery back will be huge for Carson Wentz. Philadelphia’s backup offensive linemen are surrendering more than twice the pressure rate as the starters and the Eagles should be a top-10 unit at full strength. Miami’s secondary is now without their four best players to start the season in Bobby McCain, Reshad Jones, Xavien Howard, and Minkah Fitzpatrick and that patchwork secondary allowed 9.1 yards per pass play last week These offenses are trending in opposite directions and I expect the Eagles to dominate in this matchup. Our model favors Philadelphia by 10.6 points, with a predicted total of 42.2 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Dolphins
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.4 37.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.4% 41.8%
  • Sack Rate 6.6% 8.3%
  • Int Rate 1.6% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 22.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.0% 42.2%
  • NYPP 5.7 6.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.5 23.1
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 19.7% 27.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 42.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 36.8% 43.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 66.9 60.7
  • Early Down Succ 50.9% 43.8%
  • Succ Rate 48.7% 41.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.1% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 27.6
  • Run Ratio 43.0% 38.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.6 30.3
  • Game Control -1.6 1.6
 
  • Points 22.1 22.5
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