Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *LA RAMS (+3) over Philadelphia

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (49.5)

• The Rams’ offense is undervalued by the betting market, which rates their offense at just 1.1 points better than average (13th).
• Los Angeles has a 48% success rate (6th) despite WR Cooper Kupp missing 4 games, WR Puka Nacua missing 5 games, LT Alaric Jackson missing 2 games, RT Rob Havenstein missing 3 games, LG Steve Alvila missing 7 games, and C Jonah Jackson missing 7 games.
• The Rams have a case for the best offense in the NFL with everyone on the field, which might happen this week if RT Rob Havenstein suits up as expected. It would be the first game of the season Matthew Stafford has all five starting offensive linemen in front of him.
• Los Angeles averaged 29.3 points per game after the bye last season, excluding week 18 with Carson Wentz at quarterback, and I think they will end this year in the same manner.
• Philadelphia’s offense is also trending upwards with LT Jordan Mailata coming back into the fold. Mailata did not allow a single pressure against Washington last week and his backup Fred Johnson was surrendering a 17% pressure rate.
• The Eagles have a 44% rush success rate (6th) and have increased the run play rate since their bye week, but I do not believe it will continue on Sunday night as the Rams have the 3rd-rated rush defense according to our metrics.
• Jalen Hurts will instead feature his wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, who are averaging 0.65 and 0.47 EPA/target, respectively, ranking 5th and 17th.
• The model projects Rams by 1.6 points as the true line, with a predicted total of 55.2 points.

The Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -120 or better and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 50.5 or less. If you don’t have +3 -120 or better with the Rams, then you can play that Star on the Rams Team Total Over 23 (at 23.5 or less).