Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (48) – Philadelphia (-4.5) vs LA RAMS

· The Rams are averaging 0.12 EPA/pass (9th) and it is likely Cooper Kupp will get back in the mix this week. Kupp is averaging 106.1 receiving yards per game since the start of 2021 and he is worth at least a point to the Los Angeles offense.

· The Eagles have been scrambling a bit to replace Avonte Maddox after the nickelback went out in week 2. They signed veteran CB Bradley Roby this week, but he is unlikely to suit up for Sunday’s game. The signing illustrates that they feel one cornerback short in the secondary, which gives a favorable matchup for Kupp or Rams WR Puka Nacua, who is averaging 2.98 yards per route run (5th).

· Philadelphia’s defense is allowing a 70% success rate to tight ends (30th) and I expect Stafford to find TE Tyler Higbee, who is gaining 0.32 EPA/target (6th).

· Eagles edge rusher Haason Reddick has 13 pressures (24th) but he will be contained by RT Rob Havenstein, who ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Philadelphia’s offense has the best ground game in the NFL with a 51% rush success rate and they will bludgeon a Rams defense that prefers to use light boxes.

· Los Angeles just played a version of the Eagles smashmouth offense last week in Indianapolis. Colts head coach Shane Steichen was the designer of Philadelphia’s offensive scheme these previous couple of seasons. The Rams surrendered 133 rush yards to Indianapolis, and they’ll likely give up even more ground yards to the Eagles this Sunday.

· Aaron Donald ranks 4th in pass-rushing efficiency, but the Eagles’ interior offensive line is responsible for just 36% of the pressures this year (4th-lowest). I’m not expecting a major downgrade from guard Cam Jurgens to backup Sua Opeta, who has allowed only one hurry in 34 pass-blocking snaps this season.

· Jalen Hurts will have time in the pocket to give opportunities for YAC to wide receivers DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown, who is gaining 0.48 EPA/target.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 53.1 points.

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49 points or less and 1-Star Over 49.5 points (Strong Opinion at 50).