Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion Under 49.5 – Philadelphia at LAS VEGAS
Lean – Philadelphia (+3)

Derek Carr ramped up the vertical passing attack in his first game without Jon Gruden, averaging 12 air yards per attempt, but I do not expect the long ball to be available against a Philadelphia defense that is ranked 7th by our numbers. Raiders WR Henry Ruggs now has 7 deep receptions (2nd) but he will likely be contained by CB Darius Slay, who is conceding only 0.69 yards per cover snap. Eagles nickelback Avonte Maddox is allowing just 0.65 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and he will limit Hunter Renfrow, who is averaging 1.93 yards per route run in the slot (6th).

Raiders edge defender Maxx Crosby had five sacks last week and now ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency but he will be contained on Sunday as Philadelphia gets starting RT Lane Johnson back after missing three games. Johnson is conceding a 4.3% pressure rate while backup Andre Dillard was allowing 6.7% pressure rate. Jalen Hurts will still be flushed out of the pocket, as interior defender Solomon Thomas ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency and backup LG Landon Dickerson is surrendering an 8.7% pressure rate. Philadelphia rookie WR DeVonta Smith has a team high 22% target rate, but Las Vegas CB Casey Hayward is conceding only one reception every 26.3 cover snaps, which is the best in the NFL.

Our model favors the Raiders by 2.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, and the number of points scored is likely to be below the model prediction to matchups that favor the under. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 49 points or higher.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Raiders

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.71 35.00
Succ Pass Plays 41.9% 58.2%
Sack Rate 5.6% 4.6%
Int Rate 1.7% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 22.3% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 46.1% 26.2%
NYPP 6.31 6.64

Rush

Rush Plays 23.43 32.43
RB YPR 5.23 4.21
Stuff Rate 19.2% 21.6%
Succ Rush Plays 56.1% 51.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.8% 33.6%
Yards Per Rush 5.02 4.15

Game

All Snaps 60.14 67.43
Early Down Succ 51.3% 57.5%
Succ Rate 47.8% 54.7%
Big Yards Rate 44.2% 30.0%
Yards Per Play 5.88 5.38
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.10 30.07
Run Ratio 38.9% 48.1%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -4.70 4.70

Points 22.71 26.43

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ATL	32 – 6 W	7.50	55.6% / 39.5%	2.8% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.25 / 3.58	58.1% / 42.3%	12.9% / 26.9%	5.58 / 4.77	67 / 64	61.5% / 47.8%	56.7% / 40.6%	35.5% / 24.3%	6.48 / 4.06	0.0% / 0.0%	46.3% / 40.6%	0.00 / 0.00
2	SF	11 – 17 L	-2.03	38.5% / 56.7%	7.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.81 / 6.30	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 26.3%	5.21 / 3.08	55 / 68	53.7% / 50.9%	49.1% / 50.0%	52.5% / 23.2%	5.96 / 4.50	0.0% / 0.0%	52.7% / 55.9%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@DAL	21 – 41 L	-11.98	36.6% / 60.0%	4.9% / 13.3%	5.1% / 0.0%	7.39 / 7.33	33.3% / 56.1%	16.7% / 22.0%	5.33 / 3.90	53 / 71	39.5% / 63.0%	35.8% / 57.7%	46.7% / 25.1%	6.92 / 5.35	0.0% / 1.4%	22.6% / 57.7%	0.00 / 0.00
4	KC	30 – 42 L	-4.73	52.9% / 77.4%	5.9% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	7.02 / 8.74	68.4% / 71.9%	10.5% / 6.3%	5.42 / 6.25	70 / 63	61.1% / 73.1%	57.1% / 74.6%	32.4% / 47.7%	6.59 / 7.48	0.0% / 0.0%	27.1% / 50.8%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@CAR	21 – 18 W	-5.34	33.3% / 42.5%	5.1% / 7.5%	2.7% / 8.1%	4.67 / 3.95	59.1% / 36.7%	22.7% / 20.0%	4.14 / 3.63	61 / 70	45.7% / 41.8%	42.6% / 40.0%	40.5% / 30.1%	4.48 / 3.81	1.6% / 0.0%	36.1% / 42.9%	0.00 / 0.00
6	TB	22 – 28 L	-9.08	32.1% / 54.8%	7.1% / 0.0%	3.8% / 2.4%	4.04 / 7.07	52.6% / 51.6%	31.6% / 29.0%	5.26 / 3.29	47 / 73	44.1% / 54.2%	40.4% / 53.4%	60.9% / 23.1%	4.53 / 5.47	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 42.5%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@LV	22 – 33 L	-7.22	44.4% / 76.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.19 / 9.50	62.5% / 55.2%	12.5% / 20.7%	4.22 / 4.10	68 / 63	53.8% / 71.7%	52.9% / 66.7%	41.2% / 36.2%	5.26 / 7.02	2.9% / 0.0%	47.1% / 46.0%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BLT	33 – 27 W	-4.68	50.8% / 42.4%	5.1% / 9.1%	1.8% / 0.0%	6.93 / 6.58	38.1% / 38.2%	47.6% / 23.5%	3.90 / 5.56	80 / 67	50.0% / 43.4%	47.5% / 40.3%	48.5% / 59.2%	6.14 / 6.06	0.0% / 3.0%	26.3% / 50.7%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@PIT	26 – 17 W	3.62	59.0% / 47.6%	5.1% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	9.56 / 6.95	40.0% / 35.7%	32.0% / 35.7%	2.08 / 2.79	64 / 56	56.3% / 48.8%	51.6% / 44.6%	43.3% / 43.7%	6.64 / 5.91	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 25.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	MIA	31 – 28 W	-0.60	45.7% / 43.1%	6.5% / 3.9%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.76 / 3.86	48.6% / 44.4%	22.9% / 22.2%	4.00 / 4.93	81 / 78	46.2% / 45.5%	46.9% / 43.6%	54.8% / 31.3%	6.14 / 4.23	0.0% / 0.0%	43.2% / 34.6%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@LAC	14 – 28 L	-9.59	34.2% / 46.3%	10.5% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.34 / 5.17	38.9% / 61.8%	27.8% / 23.5%	2.67 / 4.94	56 / 75	39.5% / 58.6%	35.7% / 53.3%	33.6% / 35.1%	3.80 / 5.07	0.0% / 0.0%	32.1% / 45.3%	0.00 / 0.00
5	CHI	9 – 20 L	-5.61	42.1% / 47.8%	7.9% / 8.7%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.95 / 4.74	54.5% / 45.9%	27.3% / 37.8%	3.23 / 3.86	60 / 60	55.0% / 48.9%	46.7% / 46.7%	24.9% / 9.5%	4.32 / 4.20	0.0% / 0.0%	36.7% / 61.7%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@DEN	34 – 24 W	9.24	48.3% / 48.1%	6.9% / 9.3%	0.0% / 6.1%	11.72 / 5.72	52.2% / 52.2%	17.4% / 21.7%	3.74 / 4.87	52 / 77	55.0% / 58.2%	50.0% / 49.4%	64.4% / 28.3%	8.19 / 5.47	0.0% / 1.3%	44.2% / 29.9%	0.00 / 0.00
7	PHI	33 – 22 W	7.22	76.5% / 44.4%	0.0% / 5.6%	2.9% / 0.0%	9.50 / 6.19	55.2% / 62.5%	20.7% / 12.5%	4.10 / 4.22	63 / 68	71.7% / 53.8%	66.7% / 52.9%	36.2% / 41.2%	7.02 / 5.26	0.0% / 2.9%	46.0% / 47.1%	0.00 / 0.00

Philadelphia Eagles @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 24

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis