Philadelphia Eagles @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Sep 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 465
Odds: Detroit Lions +4, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (49 -115) – Philadelphia (-4) vs DETROIT

· I’m not sure the Eagles are getting enough credit for the first year with their new coaching staff after the disappointing performance in the playoffs versus the Buccaneers. Philadelphia finished last season 12th with a +2.4 scoring margin but they played the backups in week 18 and the scoring margin was +5.5 points without that game which would’ve been 7th in the NFL.

· The Eagles defense added CB James Bradberry (4th in forced incompletions last year), edge defender Haason Reddick (22nd in pass rushing efficiency), and safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Additionally, DE Brandon Graham only played 50 snaps for the defense last year due to ruptured Achilles tendon but made the Pro Bowl in 2020 during his last full season.

· The market currently is implying Philadelphia’s defense is below average (22nd) but I think they’ll finish much better than that as they’re 7th in our talent ratings after a productive offseason.

· The combo of Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability and a dominating offensive line last year led the Eagles to the top ground game in the NFL, 2 points better than average by our numbers. I expect Philadelphia’s rush offense to be near the top of the league again in 2022. 

· Hurts threw for 6.5 yppp (13th) last season and the Eagles added wide receiver AJ Brown, averaging 10.2 yards per target through his first three seasons.

· Philadelphia’s starting LT Andre Dillard underwent surgery to repair his broken forearm and will miss about a month. We have him worth 0.4 points.

· The Lions will also be missing a starter on the offensive line with guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai out with a back injury. Vaitai ranked 12th in pass blocking efficiency last year and is worth about a half point.

· Jared Goff improved a bit from 5.5 yppp with Anthony Lynn calling plays during the first eight weeks of last season to 5.8 yppp down the stretch with Ben Johnson serving as interim offensive coordinator. I think Goff can get over 6 yppp this season after a full summer of preparation with Johnson.

· Lions starting center Frank Ragnow (made 2020 Pro Bowl during his last full season) didn’t practice Thursday or Friday with a groin injury so it looks like he could be out along with Vaitai. To make matters worse, backup interior lineman Tommy Kraemer is also not practicing.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 6.2 points with a predicted total of 46.8 points and the matchups favor the Under.


The Under is a Strong Opinion at 48 points or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Lions


  • Pass Plays 36.00 38.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 55.6% 39.5%
  • Sack Rate 2.8% 7.9%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 8.8% 14.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 28.8% 0.0%
  • NYPP 7.25 3.58


  • Rush Plays 31.00 26.00
  • RB YPR 4.63 4.83
  • Stuff Rate 12.9% 26.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 58.1% 42.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 45.7% 56.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.58 4.77


  • All Snaps 67.00 64.00
  • Early Down Succ 61.5% 47.8%
  • Succ Rate 56.7% 40.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.5% 24.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.48 4.06
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.76 27.19
  • Run Ratio 46.3% 40.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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