Philadelphia Eagles @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Oct 31
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: Detroit Lions +3.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Lean – Philadelphia (-3/-3.5) vs DETROIT

Philadelphia’s defensive scheme allows underneath routes and last week Derek Carr completed 31 of 34 passing attempts with only a 5-yard average depth of target, his lowest of the year. Jared Goff is averaging a league-low 6.3 air yards per attempt and 70% of his yards came after the catch last Sunday. The Lions are targeting running backs on 27.5% of passes (2nd) and Goff will utilize the screen game against linebacker Alex Singleton, who ranks last among 41 qualifying LBs surrendering a reception every 5.3 cover snaps. Goff being able to get the ball out quickly is important given that Eagles DT Javon Hargrave leads interior defenders with 6 sacks and Detroit LG Jonah Jackson ranks 48th out of 54 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency.

The Lions have the best rush defense in the NFL by our metrics and Philadelphia’s offense won’t be able to move the ball on the ground as Miles Sanders likely will be sidelined with a low-end ankle sprain. Eagles’ backup RBs Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott are avoiding only 0.06 tackles per rush compared to Sanders 0.14 missed tackles forced per carry.

Detroit’s pass defense is about a half point worse than average and will be a refreshing change for Jalen Hurts after the previous two games versus the Raiders and Buccaneers, who rank 3rd and 4th respectively in pass defense according to our numbers.

Our model makes Philadelphia a 6.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.1 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Lions
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.13 35.63
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.9% 54.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.1% 6.0%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.7% 15.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.1% 27.0%
  • NYPP 6.34 6.19



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.25 30.63
  • RB YPR 4.34 4.09
  • Stuff Rate 18.6% 22.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 59.0% 51.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 44.5% 33.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.01 4.03




Game

  • All Snaps 60.38 66.25
  • Early Down Succ 52.4% 56.2%
  • Succ Rate 49.1% 53.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.3% 27.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.76 5.19
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.10 29.49
  • Run Ratio 43.3% 45.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -1.85 1.85
 
  • Points 25.38 23.88
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