Game Analysis

Note: This game was played shortly after news that Jalen Hurts would likely miss the game and we grabbed the best number, which has since dropped to +4.

1-Star Best Bet – *Philadelphia (+6) over DALLAS

· Jalen Hurts has a shoulder injury and will likely miss this game as a result. Gardner Minshew is a very capable backup quarterback. Minshew was just 1.4 points per game worse than Hurts coming into this season using EPA/play and the upgrade in skill position players that have led to Hurts’ improvement should also help Minshew improve on his career numbers, which are solid (6.1 yards per pass play and only 1.4% career interception rate).

· Minshew can run (4.9 ypr on 105 runs) but he’s not the threat that Hurts is and the defense not being as focused on the QB keeping the ball on the read-option plays should lower the yards per rush of the running backs. However, Miles Sanders averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 343 runs in 2019 and 2020 before Hurts took over – compared to 5.2 yards per rush this season.

· The Eagles are a point better rushing with Hurts and 2 points better in the pass game. This may seem like a low adjustment for an MVP candidate, but Minshew will be spurred on by the same tremendous supporting cast Hurts has put to good use all year.

· Trevon Diggs will be the only Dallas starting cornerback available this week and Philadelphia’s offense has two elite wide receivers. Diggs cannot guard both, leaving one in a favorable matchup on every passing snap. DeVonta Smith is averaging 0.49 EPA/target (4th) and AJ Brown has gained 709 yards against single-high coverages (5th) which will be particularly potent versus the Cowboys Cover 1 scheme.

· Minshew will have a threatening tight end as well. TE Dallas Goedert led the NFL with a 74% success rate before a shoulder injury in week 10 and he will be back in uniform on Christmas Eve.

· Cowboys’ interior defender Osa Odighizuwa ranks 18th in pass rushing efficiency while Dallas edge defenders Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence have 117 pressures between the two, but Minshew will be behind an offensive line leading the league in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Cowboys have a 45% rush success rate (5th) but they will be shut down by an Eagles rush defense allowing only -0.189 EPA/run (3rd) since signing interior defenders Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph prior to week 11.

· Dak Prescott’s top receiver CeeDee Lamb is averaging 2.44 yards per route run in the slot (4th) but he will be limited on the inside by Philadelphia nickelback Avonte Maddox, who is conceding just 1.06 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).

· Dallas is experimenting with Tyron Smith and Jason Peters will be out of position at right tackle. Smith allowed three pressures last week while Peters also rotated in at right tackle and allowed a sack. Either will struggle to contain edge defender Haason Reddick, who ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Eagles by 1.3 points even with Hurts not playing, with a predicted total of 45.1 points. This would have been a 2-Star Best Bet under normal circumstances but there is a possibility that other starters are rested or pulled early given the Eagles’ 3-game lead in the division.

Philadelphia is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +4).