Philadelphia Eagles @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 20
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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LEAN – Philadelphia (+2.5/+3) over DALLAS

Early in the week it looked like Dallas could be without three crucial offensive starters and both top cornerbacks, but there was good news at practice on Friday. We should see Amari Cooper, dealing with a thigh bruise, line up with other wide receiver threat Michael Gallup, who is gaining 2.80 yards per route run (4th). Cooper is averaging 2.91 yards per route run (2nd) and is worth nearly a point to the Dallas offense. The Eagles will likely get cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills back in uniform to battle with the Cowboys excellent outside receivers. We’ve downgraded the Dallas offense by more than 2 points the last two games without their elite tackle tandem, but it looks like both will return to action on Sunday night. Tyron Smith and La’el Collins both rank in the top 10 in pass block win rate among tackles while backups Cameron Fleming and Brandon Knight each surrendered 9 pressures in their limited action. Eagles Brandon Graham ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders but won’t be much of a threat in this matchup across from Collins. All-Pro interior defender Fletcher Cox has no sacks but has 28 pressures this season (3rd). However, Cox likely will not make his normal impact across from All Pro right guard Zack Martin.

DeSean Jackson was gaining 4.40 yards per route run before his early season injury and it doesn’t look like he will be available to exploit a Cowboys defense without cornerback Anthony Brown. Zach Ertz has struggled gaining just 1.78 yards per route run (13th) as the Eagles do not have a deep threat to stretch the safeties farther back. Robert Quinn’s 36% pass rush win rate leads all edge defenders and he should have a very productive evening with Eagles left tackle Jason Peters probably unavailable.

Dak Prescott will be relieved to have his offense back at full strength while the absence of DeSean Jackson and Jason Peters will put pressure on Carson Wentz to make plays with improvisation. Our model favors Dallas by 4.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, so the line value favors the Cowboys a bit. However, Philadelphia applies to a very good 84-20-2 ATS subset of a 206-107-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and I’d actually lean with Philly here based on the situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Cowboys
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.3 40.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 45.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.0% 6.2%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 21.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.5% 35.2%
  • NYPP 6.3 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.7 22.0
  • RB YPR 3.8 2.9
  • Stuff Rate 17.6% 29.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 48.1% 41.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.6% 45.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.2




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 62.3
  • Early Down Succ 49.8% 46.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.9% 43.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.0% 41.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 27.9
  • Run Ratio 42.4% 35.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.5 27.9
  • Game Control -1.3 1.3
 
  • Points 26.8 24.8
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