Game Analysis
LEAN – Philadelphia (+2.5/+3) over DALLAS
Early in the week it looked like Dallas could be without three crucial offensive starters and both top cornerbacks, but there was good news at practice on Friday. We should see Amari Cooper, dealing with a thigh bruise, line up with other wide receiver threat Michael Gallup, who is gaining 2.80 yards per route run (4th). Cooper is averaging 2.91 yards per route run (2nd) and is worth nearly a point to the Dallas offense. The Eagles will likely get cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills back in uniform to battle with the Cowboys excellent outside receivers. We’ve downgraded the Dallas offense by more than 2 points the last two games without their elite tackle tandem, but it looks like both will return to action on Sunday night. Tyron Smith and La’el Collins both rank in the top 10 in pass block win rate among tackles while backups Cameron Fleming and Brandon Knight each surrendered 9 pressures in their limited action. Eagles Brandon Graham ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders but won’t be much of a threat in this matchup across from Collins. All-Pro interior defender Fletcher Cox has no sacks but has 28 pressures this season (3rd). However, Cox likely will not make his normal impact across from All Pro right guard Zack Martin.
DeSean Jackson was gaining 4.40 yards per route run before his early season injury and it doesn’t look like he will be available to exploit a Cowboys defense without cornerback Anthony Brown. Zach Ertz has struggled gaining just 1.78 yards per route run (13th) as the Eagles do not have a deep threat to stretch the safeties farther back. Robert Quinn’s 36% pass rush win rate leads all edge defenders and he should have a very productive evening with Eagles left tackle Jason Peters probably unavailable.
Dak Prescott will be relieved to have his offense back at full strength while the absence of DeSean Jackson and Jason Peters will put pressure on Carson Wentz to make plays with improvisation. Our model favors Dallas by 4.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, so the line value favors the Cowboys a bit. However, Philadelphia applies to a very good 84-20-2 ATS subset of a 206-107-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and I’d actually lean with Philly here based on the situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.3
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.0%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.0%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.5%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
21.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.5%
35.2%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.7
22.0
-
RB YPR
3.8
2.9
-
Stuff Rate
17.6%
29.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.1%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
45.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
66.0
62.3
-
Early Down Succ
49.8%
46.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
43.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.0%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.9
-
Run Ratio
42.4%
35.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.5
27.9
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.3
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
55.8%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
3.0%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.8%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
37.2%
-
NYPP
8.4
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
22.3
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
13.5%
17.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.6%
48.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.6%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
56.2%
55.8%
-
Succ Rate
55.0%
49.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.6%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
29.9
-
Run Ratio
44.1%
36.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
23.7
28.5
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
32 – 27 W |
-4.0 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
2.5% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.8 / 8.0 |
45.2% / 30.8% |
22.6% / 23.1% |
4.0 / 2.2 |
71 / 59 |
47.1% / 44.2% |
50.7% / 44.1% |
42.0% / 40.2% |
6.1 / 6.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.7% / 22.0% |
31.4 / 23.5 |
2 |
@ATL |
20 – 24 L |
-4.4 |
43.1% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 2.3% |
4.2% / 7.0% |
4.6 / 7.0 |
33.3% / 47.1% |
19.0% / 23.5% |
2.3 / 3.4 |
72 / 61 |
35.3% / 53.1% |
40.3% / 49.2% |
15.0% / 46.6% |
4.0 / 6.0 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
29.2% / 27.9% |
38.5 / 23.4 |
3 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
43.6% / 40.6% |
7.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
46.7% / 35.7% |
10.0% / 39.3% |
4.2 / 3.1 |
69 / 60 |
44.4% / 38.6% |
44.9% / 38.3% |
54.4% / 43.2% |
5.4 / 4.8 |
2.9% / 0.0% |
43.5% / 46.7% |
25.6 / 38.9 |
4 |
@GB |
34 – 27 W |
0.2 |
55.6% / 48.1% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
5.9 / 7.7 |
69.7% / 55.0% |
6.1% / 30.0% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
60 / 74 |
67.3% / 50.8% |
63.3% / 50.0% |
31.3% / 39.5% |
5.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
55.0% / 27.0% |
31.9 / 21.0 |
5 |
NYJ |
31 – 6 W |
16.1 |
43.3% / 25.0% |
3.3% / 27.8% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
6.0 / 1.7 |
34.5% / 42.1% |
34.5% / 26.3% |
2.9 / 3.5 |
59 / 55 |
42.9% / 35.0% |
39.0% / 30.9% |
44.2% / 25.0% |
4.5 / 2.3 |
1.7% / 1.8% |
49.2% / 34.5% |
35.2 / 27.1 |
6 |
@MIN |
20 – 38 L |
-10.8 |
53.5% / 63.3% |
4.7% / 3.3% |
4.9% / 3.4% |
6.8 / 10.8 |
59.1% / 37.1% |
13.6% / 34.3% |
4.9 / 3.5 |
65 / 65 |
62.0% / 54.7% |
55.4% / 49.2% |
53.0% / 52.3% |
6.2 / 6.9 |
1.5% / 1.5% |
33.8% / 53.8% |
26.2 / 33.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYG |
35 – 17 W |
11.2 |
71.9% / 55.1% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
12.7 / 6.5 |
36.7% / 70.6% |
16.7% / 11.8% |
3.0 / 8.9 |
62 / 66 |
56.0% / 67.3% |
54.8% / 59.1% |
50.6% / 41.7% |
8.0 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
48.4% / 25.8% |
23.6 / 21.1 |
2 |
@WAS |
31 – 21 W |
4.6 |
61.3% / 57.9% |
3.2% / 2.6% |
3.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.5 |
64.7% / 41.2% |
8.8% / 17.6% |
6.3 / 2.8 |
65 / 55 |
64.2% / 59.5% |
63.1% / 52.7% |
43.5% / 22.4% |
7.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.3% / 30.9% |
19.3 / 30.7 |
3 |
MIA |
31 – 6 W |
11.1 |
48.5% / 40.9% |
3.0% / 6.8% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.8 |
67.6% / 37.5% |
2.9% / 29.2% |
6.9 / 3.0 |
67 / 68 |
60.7% / 46.0% |
58.2% / 39.7% |
56.9% / 31.4% |
7.1 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
50.7% / 35.3% |
26.1 / 28.7 |
4 |
@NO |
10 – 12 L |
-1.2 |
44.1% / 42.9% |
2.9% / 14.3% |
3.0% / 3.3% |
6.2 / 4.3 |
45.0% / 59.3% |
15.0% / 18.5% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
54 / 62 |
43.9% / 52.1% |
44.4% / 50.0% |
26.1% / 34.6% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
3.7% / 0.0% |
37.0% / 43.5% |
23.1 / 33.3 |
5 |
GB |
24 – 34 L |
-14.0 |
53.2% / 41.7% |
6.4% / 5.6% |
6.8% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 6.0 |
66.7% / 55.2% |
14.3% / 17.2% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
68 / 65 |
61.7% / 54.9% |
57.4% / 47.7% |
62.3% / 52.5% |
8.3 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.9% / 44.6% |
23.1 / 31.7 |
6 |
@NYJ |
22 – 24 L |
-7.9 |
56.1% / 55.9% |
2.4% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
6.6 / 9.6 |
47.1% / 30.0% |
23.5% / 10.0% |
3.8 / 2.8 |
75 / 54 |
50.9% / 54.8% |
52.0% / 46.3% |
22.1% / 56.8% |
5.3 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.3% / 37.0% |
26.7 / 25.3 |