Philadelphia Eagles @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Cleveland Browns -3, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Over (46) – Philadelphia at CLEVELAND

Strong Opinion – Philadelphia (+3 -105)

This total opened too low due to Cleveland’s last two games being played in terrible weather. Our metrics show the Browns’ games against the Raiders and Texans were about 18 points below average conditions combined. This week, it looks like the winds will be below 10 mph in Cleveland with occasional showers, which projects to the scoring conditions to be about 1.8 points worse than an average game, which is a significant upgrade for the Browns.

The Eagles have struggled on offense this year, averaging just 22.6 points per game (24th) but our numbers expect them to be the 10th-rated offense down the stretch. Philadelphia has dealt with injuries to every single starting receiver, but they could have Alshon Jeffery, Jalen Reagor, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedart, and maybe even Zach Ertz healthy together for the first time all season this week, which should help Carson Wentz dramatically. Philadelphia’s offensive line ranks 30th in pass blocking efficiency but there’s reason to believe it will improve given that the Eagles finished in the top 10 in that category in three out of four seasons since Doug Peterson arrived prior to this year. Both starting tackles have been injured but both should be healthy this week, and DE Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks) has been downgraded to out with an illness. RT Lane Johnson is conceding a pressure rate of just 1.3% but the Pro Bowl tackle has played less than half the snaps for the Eagles. Starting LT Jason Peters has also only played half the season and he is a clear upgrade over backup Jordan Mailata, who ranks 53rd out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Cleveland’s pass defense ranks 30th in our metrics and is probably the worst in the league without Garrett. Wentz could have his best performance of the season on Sunday.

The Browns ran the ball on 64% of their offensive plays last week, the second-highest rate in a game by any team this year, but that was mostly due to wind and I think we should see Baker Mayfield pass more often than he has lately in this game. Jarvis Landry should be featured, as the Eagles are surrendering 1.67 yards per cover snap to slot receivers. Cleveland’s offensive line allowed just two pressures on 22 pass-block snaps against Houston, the lowest mark in the NFL last week and they now rank 4th in pass blocking efficiency for the season. LG Joel Bitonio ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency and RG Wyatt Teller has missed time but has only allowed one sack in 157 pass blocking snaps. Interior defenders Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox rank 5th and 9th respectively in pass rushing efficiency, but they will have trouble getting to Mayfield lined up across from this interior offensive line. RT Jack Conklin has allowed just ten pressures in eight games and he will limit edge defender Brandon Graham (4th in pass rushing efficiency) provided he passes through covid protocols.

Our model makes this game exactly pick with a predicted total of 51.1 points, and the Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47.5 points or less (Strong Opinion at 48). Aside from the line value, Philly also applies to a 122-59-3 ATS situation that plays on road underdogs coming off a loss as a favorite of 3 points or more. Philadelphia is a Strong Opinion at +3 or more at -115 odds or better.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Browns
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 42.1 37.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.0% 45.9%
  • Sack Rate 9.3% 8.7%
  • Int Rate 3.6% 0.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.4% 14.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.2% 30.6%
  • NYPP 5.0 5.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.0 30.6
  • RB YPR 5.4 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 21.9% 25.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.9% 44.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 47.9% 53.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.3 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 66.1 68.0
  • Early Down Succ 47.3% 48.3%
  • Succ Rate 45.3% 45.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.5% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.6 28.2
  • Run Ratio 36.2% 45.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.2 32.0
  • Game Control -2.9 2.9
 
  • Points 22.6 25.8
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