Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Philadelphia (+3 -105) over CAROLINA
Jalen Hurts has the 11th-most rushing yards in the league since taking over as the starter in week 14 last year and he should do damage with his scrambling in this matchup because Panthers top LB Shaq Thompson is scheduled to sit out the next few games while he recovers from a foot injury. Thompson is conceding only 0.65 yards per cover snap and Carolina’s defense has allowed just 54 receiving yards to opposing running back. I expect the Panthers to be more vulnerable to screens without Thompson in the lineup and the Eagles target RBs on 25% of their passes (5th).
Carolina LG Dennis Daley is conceding just 1 pressure per game and should neutralize Eagles’ interior defender Javon Hargrave, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency. Meanwhile, Pro Bowl DT Fletcher Cox will destroy RG John Miller, who ranks 50th out of 59 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency.
Newly acquired Panthers CB CJ Henderson didn’t play much in his debut last week but did surrender a 35-yard TD to Amari Cooper. Carolina’s defense also traded for Pro Bowl CB Stephon Gilmore, but he won’t be eligible to be activated for another couple games.
Sam Darnold was averaging 7.6 yards per pass play the first three weeks in Joe Brady’s offense but I expect him to be closer to the 6.0 yppp he had last Sunday versus the Cowboys, as Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks 5th by our metrics.
Our model favors the Panthers by just 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 44.9 points, and the Panthers apply to a negative 127-226-18 ATS early season situation. Philly is a Strong Opinion at +3 -110 odds or better.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.5
32.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.9%
58.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.0%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.2%
22.3%
-
NYPP
7.5
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.5
34.3
-
RB YPR
5.7
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
17.2%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.2%
53.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.2%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.4
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
53.7%
58.7%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
55.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.8%
30.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
29.2
-
Run Ratio
37.0%
51.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-1.5
1.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.3
0.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.2%
0.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.8%
0.0%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.2%
0.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.9%
0.0%
-
NYPP
7.6
0.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
0.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
0.0
-
Stuff Rate
30.0%
0.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.2%
0.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.9%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
0.0
Game
-
All Snaps
68.5
0.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.0%
0.0%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
0.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.5%
0.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
0.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
0.0
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
0.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
4.4
-4.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
32 – 6 W |
7.5 |
55.6% /
39.5% |
2.8% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.3 |
58.1% /
42.3% |
12.9% /
26.9% |
5.6 /
4.8 |
67 /
64 |
61.5% /
47.8% |
56.7% /
40.6% |
35.5% /
24.3% |
6.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
40.6% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
SF |
11 – 17 L |
-2.4 |
38.5% /
56.7% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.3 |
57.1% /
44.7% |
28.6% /
26.3% |
5.4 /
3.1 |
54 /
68 |
52.5% /
50.9% |
48.1% /
50.0% |
52.6% /
23.2% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.9% /
55.9% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@DAL |
21 – 41 L |
-6.5 |
36.6% /
60.0% |
4.9% /
13.3% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
7.9 |
33.3% /
56.1% |
16.7% /
22.0% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
53 /
71 |
39.5% /
63.0% |
35.8% /
57.7% |
46.7% /
25.1% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
22.6% /
57.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
KC |
30 – 42 L |
-4.7 |
52.9% /
77.4% |
5.9% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
7.6 /
9.0 |
68.4% /
71.9% |
10.5% /
6.3% |
5.4 /
6.3 |
70 /
63 |
61.1% /
73.1% |
57.1% /
74.6% |
32.4% /
47.7% |
7.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
27.1% /
50.8% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
19 – 14 W |
6.9 |
47.2% /
37.2% |
2.8% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.8 /
6.0 |
44.4% /
35.3% |
29.6% /
11.8% |
4.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
60 |
52.1% /
41.5% |
46.0% /
36.7% |
45.9% /
50.8% |
6.2 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
28.3% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 2 |
NO |
26 – 7 W |
11.5 |
57.5% /
19.2% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
2.6% /
9.1% |
7.6 /
4.3 |
33.3% /
35.3% |
39.4% /
29.4% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
73 /
43 |
44.8% /
32.1% |
46.6% /
25.6% |
25.1% /
39.0% |
5.4 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
39.5% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 3 |
@HST |
24 – 9 W |
6.1 |
45.9% /
0.0% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
0.0 |
48.5% /
0.0% |
30.3% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
0.0 |
70 /
0 |
50.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
0.0% |
48.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
0.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
0.0% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
28 – 36 L |
-7.1 |
50.0% /
59.1% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
8.5 |
62.5% /
55.9% |
20.8% /
26.5% |
4.7 /
6.8 |
68 /
56 |
61.2% /
60.9% |
54.4% /
57.1% |
42.0% /
55.5% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.3% /
60.7% |
0.0 /
0.0 |
Philadelphia Eagles
@ 
Carolina Panthers