Philadelphia Eagles @

Buffalo Bills

Sun, Oct 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Buffalo Bills -2, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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BUFFALO (-2) vs Philadelphia

Two key injuries on Philadelphia’s offense will make it difficult for any kind of a bounce-back game with DeSean Jackson and left tackle Jason Peters unlikely to return on Sunday. Jackson’s absence leaves the Eagles with only one competent wide receiver, Alshon Jeffrey, who will be blanketed by Tre’Davious White. Rookie Andre Dillard, who is filling in for Peters, has been the worst tackle in the NFL – surrendering pressure nearly every 4 pass-blocking snaps. Ed Oliver has a 19% pass rush win rate (4th), but the rookie first-round defensive tackle won’t find much success versus Philadelphia’s strong interior offensive line. The weak spot of Buffalo’s secondary is defending tight ends as that unit is below average in that facet of their defense, surrendering 8.0 yards per target. Carson Wentz target tight ends on 33% of his passes (3rd-highest) and will need Zach Ertz to step up his game after gaining only 1.76 yards per route run thus far (16th). Of course, part of Ertz’ issue is not having DeSean Jackson to stretch the field and open up the middle.

Success for the Bills on offense will be determined in the trenches. Buffalo’s offensive line ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency and Eagles have a 65% pass rush win rate (3rd). Right guard Jon Feliciano and center Mitch Morse have conceded just 1 sack combined and should limit Fletcher Cox, whose 29 pressures rank 3rd among interior defensive linemen. Brandon Graham ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency but the edge defender’s success will likely be determined by the Bills’ right tackle decision. Second-round rookie Cody Ford has allowed 4 sacks in limited action but the Bills may continue to play him over Ty Nsekhe, whose 93% pass block win rate ranks 7th among tackles. John Brown is one of only 16 wide receivers gaining more than 2 yards per route run and he could exploit Ronald Darby, who’s been terrible this year in surrendering 2.54 yards per cover snap while dealing with a hamstring injury. Buffalo’s ground game ranks 2nd and should improve as rookie Devin Singletary gets more touches, as the far past his prime Frank Gore is averaging only 0.13 avoided tackles per rush (5th-worst).

Philadelphia’s offense will continue to struggle if DeSean Jackson and Jason Peters are out of the lineup. Josh Allen could exploit a banged-up Eagles secondary if his offensive line holds up. The Eagles are playing in their 3rd-straight road game, which is a negative, but the Eagles also apply to a 168-88-5 ATS contrary situation that plays on underperforming teams (i.e. losing spread record) that are coming off a blowout loss. That angle is 4-0 ATS when applying to teams playing their 3rd straight road game, so the bounce-back situation outweighs the negative scheduling in this case. Our model favors the Bills by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 41.9 points, but the situation favors the Eagles. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Eagles
  • Bills
PHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.0 38.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.4% 47.8%
  • Sack Rate 4.9% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 3.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.5% 20.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.6% 35.0%
  • NYPP 6.2 7.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.7 24.0
  • RB YPR 3.9 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 18.2% 27.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 41.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.2% 45.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.5




Game

  • All Snaps 64.7 62.9
  • Early Down Succ 49.2% 46.5%
  • Succ Rate 48.2% 44.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.0% 40.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 28.2
  • Run Ratio 43.3% 38.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.7 29.9
  • Game Control -3.3 3.3
 
  • Points 24.4 26.6
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