Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **BALTIMORE (-3 -105) over Philadelphia

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley amassed 255 yards on 26 carries last week but he will be contained on Sunday as the Ravens are conceding -0.21 EPA/rush (2nd) and should have LB Roquan Smith back on the field after the All-Pro missed last week.
• Jalen Hurts will be forced into winning the game by throwing the football, but he is at risk of collapsing pockets. Baltimore interior defender Nnamdi Madubuike has 41 pressures (3rd) and he should dominate Eagles’ RG Mekhi Becton, who ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Philadelphia will likely be without key players on both sides of the ball this week. WR DeVonta Smith is averaging 0.47 EPA/target (18th) but he will be sidelined dealing with a hamstring injury.
• Eagles CB Darius Slay is conceding 0.80 yards per cover snap (13th) but he was ruled out after suffering a concussion last week. Lamar Jackson will attack Philadelphia backup cornerback Isaiah Rodgers with WR Rashod Bateman, who is averaging 0.63 EPA/target (5th).
• Our model favors the Ravens by 6.3 points, with a predicted total of 52.8 points, and the Eagles apply to a 37-90-3 ATS situation that is based on their 3 consecutive wins and spread wins. It also doesn’t hurt that Lamar Jackson is now 31-5-2 ATS in regular season games when not favored by 4 points or more.

Baltimore is a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 -120 odds or better and 1-Star to -4.