Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: This game is part of the 1-Star Best Bet 6 Point Teaser (Detroit +8.5 with Atlanta +7.5 or more).

ATLANTA over Philadelphia

The Falcons played the Eagles almost exactly a year ago in the 2018 season opener when Atlanta was +1.5 in Philadelphia and now we’re seeing the same spread with the home field advantage flipped. The look-ahead line for this game was Falcons by 1, but we’ve seen action on the Eagles after Atlanta’s terrible performance in Minnesota.

Philadelphia started last week’s game down 17-0 but turned it around as DeSean Jackson got in behind Washington’s defense twice for two touchdowns. Zach Ertz was held to just 54 receiving yards and I expect linebacker Falcons’ linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal to do a decent job limiting the Pro Bowl tight end this week. Falcons’ interior defender Grady Jarrett had a sack and forced fumble in week 1 but the middle of the Eagles offensive line should provide a much tougher test.

Philadelphia’s defense lost former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Malik Jackson for the season, but we think the Falcons losing first round guard Chris Lindstrom is actually the worse blow. Now backup right guard Jamon Brown will have to try and stay in front of Fletcher Cox, who ranked 2nd in pass rushing efficiency among interior defensive linemen last season. Furthermore, rookie right tackle Kaleb McGary has a difficult matchup across from Brandon Graham coming off a 6 pressure game in week 1. However, the Eagles do not have anyone to guard Julio Jones and I expect him to bounce back after a difficult season opener. We’ve adjusted Atlanta’s offense down by about a point from the prior after the putrid showing in a tough week 1 matchup, but we still expect Matt Ryan’s group to still finish in the top 10 this season.

While I’m worried about the right side of the Falcons offensive line, this is one of those don’t overreact to one game scenarios and I believe in our talent grades. Our model favors Atlanta by 2 points with a predicted total of 48.3. Teasers add value to bets when moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7, especially when avoiding road favorites and games with high totals above 51. That is the case for both Atlanta and Detroit.

Team Stats
Game Log

Eagles
Falcons

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 45.5 45.0
Succ Pass Plays 49.1% 48.9%
Sack Rate 4.2% 2.2%
Int Rate 2.1% 3.5%
Deep Pass Rate 17.7% 19.8%
Big Pass Yards 29.8% 44.7%
NYPP 6.2 7.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 15.0
RB YPR 3.4 2.7
Stuff Rate 20.8% 23.3%
Succ Rush Plays 39.2% 38.9%
Big Rush Yards 21.5% 24.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.2 2.8

Game

All Snaps 71.5 60.0
Early Down Succ 41.2% 48.6%
Succ Rate 45.5% 46.6%
Big Yards Rate 28.5% 43.4%
Yards Per Play 5.1 6.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.3 26.2
Run Ratio 36.4% 25.0%
Starting Field Pos 35.0 23.5
Game Control -4.2 4.2

Points 26.0 25.5

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	32 – 27 W	-4.0	55.0% / 47.8%	2.5% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 8.0	45.2% / 30.8%	22.6% / 23.1%	4.0 / 2.2	71 / 59	47.1% / 44.2%	50.7% / 44.1%	42.0% / 40.2%	6.1 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 22.0%	31.4 / 23.5
2	@ATL	20 – 24 L	-4.4	43.1% / 50.0%	5.9% / 2.3%	4.2% / 7.0%	4.6 / 7.0	33.3% / 47.1%	19.0% / 23.5%	2.3 / 3.4	72 / 61	35.3% / 53.1%	40.3% / 49.2%	15.0% / 46.6%	4.0 / 6.0	1.4% / 0.0%	29.2% / 27.9%	38.5 / 23.4

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	12 – 28 L	-18.6	48.0% / 63.6%	8.0% / 9.1%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 8.8	41.2% / 36.8%	29.4% / 26.3%	4.3 / 4.5	67 / 49	47.4% / 43.2%	46.3% / 42.9%	36.5% / 58.0%	5.1 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 77.6%	26.5 / 33.7
2	PHI	24 – 20 W	4.4	50.0% / 43.1%	2.3% / 5.9%	7.0% / 4.2%	7.0 / 4.6	47.1% / 33.3%	23.5% / 19.0%	3.4 / 2.3	61 / 72	53.1% / 35.3%	49.2% / 40.3%	46.6% / 15.0%	6.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.4%	27.9% / 29.2%	23.4 / 38.5

Philadelphia Eagles @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Sep 15

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis