Game Analysis
SAN FRANCISCO (+1) vs Oakland
Niners’ quarterback C.J. Beathard is out tonight with a sprained wrist and former Southern Miss quarterback Nick Mullens has been named the starter. Beathard is gaining just 5.9 yards per pass play (29th), and the 49ers offense will likely be even worse with Mullens under center. Mullens signed with San Francisco after going undrafted and played on their practice squad before being activated after Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury. Mullens will likely utilize George Kittle in a favorable matchup. Kittle, who’s seen the 4th-most targets among tight ends and is gaining 2.44 yards per route run (2nd), is in line for a productive evening versus a Raiders defense surrendering a league-worst 10.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends. I’m sure that fact has not gotten past Kyle Shanahan and his offensive staff.
Oakland’s offense will still be without Marshawn Lynch and excellent left tackle Donald Penn. Lynch was leading the league with 0.26 avoided tackles per carry and no running back has a lower success rate since than start of last season than his backup Doug Martin (29%). Penn’s injury forced rookie Kolton Miller to move from right tackle to left tackle in week 5 and he hasn’t responded well. Miller is averaging 2 sacks conceded per game at left tackle, while no other tackle in the league is averaging more than 1 sack conceded per game. John Gruden’s offense ranks 24th in our numbers but should be more than a point worse without Lynch and Penn moving forward. However, there is good news for the Raiders as Pro Bowl guard Kelechi Osemele is slated to return on Thursday. Osemele hadn’t allowed a sack before being injured in week 4 and he’ll be crucial limiting DeForest Buckner, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defensive linemen.
Our model favors Oakland by 1 point with Mullens now starting at quarterback for the Niners and the market is in line with our model. No play on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.0
30.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.4%
50.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
3.3%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.0%
21.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.3%
51.2%
-
NYPP
7.5
9.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.7
30.9
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
20.2%
19.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.1%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
56.8%
48.6%
-
Succ Rate
54.2%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.3%
49.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.1
29.7
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
49.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.3
31.8
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
37.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.7%
50.4%
-
Sack Rate
11.6%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
4.0%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.4%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.3%
39.5%
-
NYPP
6.4
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.9
27.1
-
RB YPR
4.9
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
14.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.8%
44.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.8%
33.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
64.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.3%
48.2%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
45.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.2%
37.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
27.7
-
Run Ratio
45.3%
43.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.9
32.4
-
Game Control
-3.8
3.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
13 – 33 L |
-1.4 |
48.8% /
44.1% |
2.4% /
2.9% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
56.5% /
55.6% |
17.4% /
3.7% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
64 /
61 |
52.8% /
54.2% |
51.6% /
49.2% |
39.2% /
39.3% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
44.3% |
23.5 /
27.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
19 – 20 L |
6.1 |
72.7% /
36.1% |
3.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.0 |
44.4% /
57.1% |
18.5% /
17.9% |
3.4 /
6.0 |
60 /
64 |
67.3% /
42.6% |
60.0% /
45.3% |
41.3% /
57.7% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
43.8% |
23.9 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@MIA |
20 – 28 L |
2.8 |
57.1% /
48.0% |
7.1% /
4.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
13.3 |
55.9% /
20.0% |
14.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
2.8 |
76 /
40 |
62.1% /
43.3% |
56.6% /
37.5% |
32.6% /
62.8% |
5.7 /
9.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.7% /
37.5% |
19.7 /
30.6 |
| 4 |
CLE |
45 – 42 W |
-2.1 |
53.3% /
37.2% |
5.0% /
4.7% |
3.5% /
4.9% |
7.1 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
43.8% |
36.7% /
21.9% |
4.7 /
6.5 |
90 /
75 |
52.1% /
42.1% |
46.7% /
40.0% |
44.2% /
57.8% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
33.3% /
42.7% |
34.9 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@LAC |
10 – 26 L |
-9.9 |
68.0% /
78.3% |
12.0% /
4.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
14.5 |
61.5% /
27.3% |
23.1% /
30.3% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
38 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.5% |
65.8% /
48.2% |
59.5% /
43.4% |
7.6 /
7.4 |
2.6% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
58.9% |
21.2 /
35.3 |
| 6 |
SEA |
3 – 27 L |
-15.9 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
16.2% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
2.9 /
8.9 |
52.6% /
46.2% |
15.8% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.0 |
56 /
63 |
46.5% /
45.7% |
42.9% /
47.6% |
31.9% /
46.9% |
3.3 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
61.9% |
20.5 /
42.2 |
| 8 |
IND |
28 – 42 L |
-1.5 |
57.1% /
61.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
55.0% /
66.7% |
15.0% /
11.9% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
48 /
73 |
61.1% /
66.7% |
56.3% /
64.4% |
47.4% /
36.3% |
7.3 /
6.3 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
57.5% |
26.1 /
35.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
44.8% /
44.4% |
24.1% /
5.6% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
61 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
49.2% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
38.4% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
46.7% |
24.1% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
70 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
51.4% |
42.9% /
28.2% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
42.9% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
71 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
42.3% |
46.4% /
47.4% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.7% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
71.1% /
80.0% |
10.5% /
10.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
16.4 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
72 /
36 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
61.1% /
44.4% |
41.2% /
47.1% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
4.2% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
72.2% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 33 L |
1.4 |
52.0% /
37.5% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
8.4 |
66.7% /
52.4% |
13.3% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
55 /
69 |
67.4% /
44.4% |
60.0% /
42.0% |
54.1% /
55.5% |
7.3 /
7.6 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
30.4% |
25.9 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
LA |
10 – 39 L |
-16.0 |
29.4% /
53.8% |
20.6% /
7.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.1 |
62.5% /
57.9% |
16.7% /
10.5% |
4.5 /
3.9 |
58 /
64 |
47.8% /
67.4% |
43.1% /
56.3% |
68.9% /
37.1% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
59.4% |
26.7 /
40.8 |
| 8 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
3.1 |
40.6% /
41.9% |
12.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
32.3% /
47.6% |
35.5% /
14.3% |
3.5 /
4.2 |
63 /
64 |
36.7% /
44.0% |
36.5% /
43.8% |
46.8% /
21.8% |
4.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.2% /
32.8% |
31.1 /
20.8 |
Oakland Raiders
@ 
San Francisco 49ers