Oakland Raiders @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Oct 7
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -5, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Oakland (+5) over LA CHARGERS

Lean – Under (53.5)

The Chargers faced a 49ers team in a very good situation last week and managed to escape with a 2-point win as a 10-point favorite. However, that results sets up the Chargers in a very negative 59-128-7 ATS situation that plays against favorites coming off a win of 3 points or less and Oakland applies to a profitable week 5 situation that plays on 1-3 teams. Teams that are 1-3 are at a major crossroad in their season, as a loss to drop to 1-4 basically ends their season while a win to get back to within 1 game of .500 allows puts them right back into the hunt. The desperation and focus of these 1-3 teams is why playing on such teams has resulted in a healthy profit over the years. All 1-3 teams are 149-114-9 ATS since 1980 (121-86-5 ATS when not facing another 1-3 team) and that record goes to 83-41-6 ATS if their opponent is coming off a victory. If you avoid playing on teams that are outclassed (i.e. underdogs of 7 points or more) then the record is an even better 70-26-5 ATS, which applies to the Raiders in this game.

While the situation is strongly in favor of the Raiders, the match-ups are not. Chargers’ DE Corey Liuget will make his season debut on Sunday after serving a 4-game suspension and he should help the Chargers improve their 5.7% sack rate (22nd) after finishing 12th among interior defensive linemen last season with a 10.7% pressure rate. The Chargers ranked 5th in sack rate in 2017, granted with Joey Bosa, and will look to get after a Raiders offensive line potentially without Pro Bowl tackle Donald Penn (questionable). The Los Angeles boost in pass rush combined with Derek Carr’s fast trigger, averaging 2.27 seconds to throw (quickest in the league), makes it unlikely Oakland’s offense will be able to exploit a Chargers defense conceding chunk plays at the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, I expect the Chargers to pound the rock with their 8th-rated rushing attack facing an Oakland run defense ranked 29th. The Chargers are playing at the 7th-slowest pace in the league and the Raiders are 9th-slowest. Divisional games are about a point and a half lower scoring and the total was just 42 when these two teams met in week 17 last season. The underdog in this series is on a 15-3 ATS run since 2009 and there will be more Raiders fans in the stadium that Chargers fans. Our model favors the Chargers by 5.3 so there’s no value on the side, but I’m going to lean with the Raiders based on the situation and I’ll lean under the high totals in a game that will likely feature the running backs.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Raiders
  • Chargers
OAK
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 44.0 34.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 58.0% 41.4%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 3.6%
  • Int Rate 4.0% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 12.6% 23.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.1% 53.4%
  • NYPP 7.7 8.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.5 25.5
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.8
  • Stuff Rate 21.8% 19.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.5% 44.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.9% 52.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 5.1




Game

  • All Snaps 72.5 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 58.6% 45.5%
  • Succ Rate 53.7% 43.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.3% 54.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 7.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 27.7
  • Run Ratio 39.8% 42.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 25.5 27.3
  • Game Control 1.4 -1.4
 
  • Points 24.3 30.8
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