Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NY Jets Team Total Under (21.5 +105)

Lean – TENNESSEE (+4) over NY Jets

• New York’s game plan was to establish RB Breece Hall and the ground game in their 41-year-old quarterback’s first game back after tearing his Achilles. However, the Jets had 13 rushes for just 31 yards on early downs when the game was competitive before the fourth quarter.
• New York’s run game will struggle again on Sunday as Tennessee’s defense conceded -0.20 EPA/rush in week 1 (8th).
• Aaron Rodgers only threw to the right side of the field once on Monday night, mostly avoiding 49ers All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward. Rodgers will not be able to play the matchups again as the Titans have two solid cornerbacks in All-Pro L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie, who conceded only 0.30 yards per cover snap in week 1 (11th).
• Tennessee’s defense only allowed Caleb Williams to complete 8 of his 20 passes thrown to his first read in week 1. Rodgers will have to hang in the pocket longer than he wants to after an average time to throw of just 2.47 seconds in week 1 (3rd-fastest) while averaging 8.3 yppp on throws quicker than 2.5 seconds (4th).
• The Titans averaged just 4.0 yards per play in Chicago in head coach Brian Callahan’s debut. They will look for more consistency versus New York’s defense, who surrendered 8-straight scoring drives last Monday night – although the model still has the Jets’ defense ranked as 8th best in the league.
• Much was made this offseason about Tennessee’s improved offensive line under Bill Callahan, but they didn’t show it against the Bears ranking 28th in pass blocking efficiency last week.
• Titans first round tackle JC Latham surrendered 5 pressures (3rd-most).
• New York interior defender Quinnen Williams ranked 4th in pass rushing efficiency last season and he will wreak havoc against LG Peter Skoronski, who surrendered 5 pressures in week 1 (2nd-most).
• Our model favors the Jets by 1.1 with a predicted total of 37.4.

The NY Jets Team Total Under 21.5 is a Strong Opinion at -105 odds or better.