Game Analysis

TAMPA BAY (-6.5) over NY Jets

• Justin Fields is out in the concussion protocol, and three starters on the Jets defense, edge defender Jermaine Johnson, safety Tony Adams, and nickelback Micheal Carter, are in the “we’ll see” stage.
• New York backup QB Tyrod Taylor is averaging 0.05 EPA/play more than Fields, with a success rate 1.2 percentage points higher since 2021 when Justin Fields entered the NFL.
• I don’t think there needs to be a downgrade for the Jets offense here, especially since New York has a situation-adjusted pass rate 21 percentage points below average. The next most run-heavy team is Philadelphia at 12 percentage points below average. However, the Jets’ ground game could be in trouble here as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing -0.36 EPA/rush (2nd).
• New York rookie right tackle Armand Membou will likely struggle across from edge rusher Haason Reddick, whose 11 pressures rank 5th.
• Buccaneers’ interior defender Calijah Kancey has 5 pressures (20th), but he is going to be out. Kancey ranked 11th in pass rushing efficiency last season and is worth 0.5 points according to our metrics.
• Tampa Bay’s defense ranked 31st in receiving success rate allowed to opposing RBs in 2024 and ranked 29th this season. The Buccaneers will struggle to defend screens to Jets RB Breece Hall. New York’s running backs have a 26% target share (5th-highest).
• Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking efficiency. Baker Mayfield needs All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs to make his season debut, but it sounds like he’s targeting week 5. Now it looks like right tackle Luke Goedeke is going to miss time too. Buccaneers center Graham Barton has been playing out of position at tackle and has surrendered 10 pressures (3rd-most). RG Cody Mauch was announced out for the season on Wednesday night. Now their best three starters on the offensive line are out for this game.
• Our model makes Tampa Bay a 8.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.2 points.