Game Analysis

Lean – Over (43) – SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) vs NY Jets

Update: Christian McCaffrey is out and he is the most valuable running back in the NFL worth 0.8 points to the spread. However, having McCaffrey out means the 49ers will likely run the ball less and McCaffrey is not worth nearly as much to the total. Furthermore, Hufanga is confirmed out which makes San Francisco’s pass defense a half point worse.

The updated prediction is Niners by 4.3 and 46.0 total points. The situation still favors the Jets, who apply to a 75-30-3 ATS week 1 angle that worked well yesterday.

• Last season was kind of a wash for the Jets after Aaron Rodgers got hurt on the very first drive. Let’s level set and see where we were on them coming into last year and then see how the roster has changed since then. The betting market thought the Jets were a borderline top 10 offense and a slightly above average defense heading into 2023.
• We were much higher on New York’s defense – starting them top 3 – and about a half point lower than market on offense going into week 1 last season. Rodgers is coming off the Achilles injury but I would say this offensive roster is much better than last year while the defense looks like it’ll be worse.
• We had New York’s offensive line ranked 28th going into 2023 and they were even worse due to injuries – ranking 31st in pass blocking efficiency. They’ve solidified the issues by adding All-Pro LT Tyron Smith and RT Morgan Moses, who ranked 20th in pass blocking efficiency on true sets in Baltimore. Furthermore, guard John Simpson also comes over from the Ravens after ranking 7th in pass blocking efficiency on true sets. This is clearly a top 5 offensive line in my eyes when healthy and they drafted first rounder Olu Fashanu for depth.
• New York’s offense also improved their receiving corps by adding Mike Williams, who only played 3 games last year but ranked 19th in yards per route run his last healthy season in 2022. We’ll be monitoring Mike Williams snap count. Jets head coach Robert Saleh says Mike Williams will be available Week 1, but he won’t be 100%: “We’re gonna be very smart with how we use him, but he’s gonna be plenty available to make his mark felt.” I’m dropping the Jets offense 0.3 points for fewer Williams snaps.
• Another position to monitor for New York heading into this Monday night game is the status of new edge rusher Hassan Reddick. It’s looking more and more like that won’t be suiting up. New York’s defensive line lost Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers, and Quinton Jefferson, who combined for 145 pressures last year. Reddick was crucial to stabilizing this defense up front so it’s vital they get him on the field as soon as possible.
• The 49ers were an absolute juggernaut last season, rating nearly 9 points above average in the market, and they bring back basically the entire offense after getting the LT Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk deals done. However, the Niners’ defense is likely to be worse.
• San Francisco’s defense lost a ton of depth in the front 7 most notably Dre Greenlaw, who has graded in the top 15 in linebacker coverage grade each of the last two seasons. They brought in LB De’Vondre Campbell to partner with Fred Warner until Greenlaw is back from his Achilles injury. Campbell was All-Pro back in 2021 but hasn’t been able to summon nearly that level since that season.
• The 49ers also lost defensive linemen Chase Young, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Clelin Ferrell, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Randy Gregory. That’s 217 pressures out the door and leaves only Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave as guys that return who finished top 8 in pressures on the team.
• It’s not just the pass rush that will suffer but also the run defense. San Francisco’s defense allowed 0.7 more yards per rush with Armstead off the field last season.
• San Francisco S Talanoa Hufanga suffered a torn ACL in November. He was All-Pro in 2022 and is worth a half point to this defense. The 49ers surrendered 0.17 EPA/dropback more after Hufanga went down last season. Hufanga will not play tonight.
• The only change on San Francisco’s offense is putting in rookie RG Dominick Puni for guard Spencer Burford, who ranked 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency and got benched for Jon Feliciano down the stretch. Kyle Shanahan clearly thinks this is an upgrade.
• Shanahan’s scheme is the best in the NFL by our metrics. The scheme significantly helps the quarterback, as Brock Purdy was 0.31 EPA/play better than average on screens last season and he will throw plenty more this year to WR Deebo Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey. With McCaffrey out, I expect more plays to be dialed up for Samuel and more passing in general.
• Shanahan is so good at giving Purdy answers when the defense sends extra pass rushers. The 49ers averaged a league-high 0.43 EPA/play versus the blitz last season.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points with McCaffery and Hufanga out, but the Jets apply to a 71-28-3 ATS week 1 angle and I used NYJ in my spread pool this week based on that.
• Monday night games have had a tendency to go Under over the years when the total is 41 points or higher (279-227-12 Under since 1980) and that has really been the case the last 5 years (56-26-2 Under since 2019). That trend is likely due to defensive coordinators having an extra day to prepare but that’s not any different from every other team in week 1 since every team has has months to prepare for their openers.