New York Jets @

Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Oct 2
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 263
Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -3, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – NY Jets (+3 Even) over PITTSBURGH

· The Jets have led for just one offensive snap this year and Joe Flacco will head to the bench. Zach Wilson will start season two for New York on Sunday after the QB gained a league-low 4.6 yppp in 2021.

· Jets LG Laken Tomlinson has allowed 13 pressures (2nd-most) and will not be able to protect Wilson across from All-Pro interior defender Cameron Heyward, who ranks 11th in pass rushing efficiency.

· New York lost starting left tackle Mekhi Becton after he suffered a knee injury during training camp and then signed LT Duane Brown before he picked up a shoulder injury. George Fant moved over to left tackle after ranking 4th in pass blocking efficiency last season but he was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. However, Wilson might not have to worry as much about pressure off the edge in this matchup.

· The Steelers had five sacks in 38 dropbacks with TJ Watt on the field this season. Then the All-Pro edge defender went out with a torn pectoral muscle and Pittsburgh’s defense has four sacks on 90 dropbacks without Watt.

· Mitchell Trubisky has taken four sacks but none have been credited to Pittsburgh’s offensive line. Steelers LG Kevin Dotson has allowed just one quarterback hit in three games and he will limit Jets interior defender Quinnen Williams, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Pittsburgh TE Pat Freiermuth is gaining 1.70 yards per route run (4th), but Robert Saleh’s defensive scheme does well defending tight ends and the Jets are ranked above average allowing 6.1 yards per target.

· Our model has the Steelers by 4.6 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points, but the Jets apply to a 94-41-2 ATS contrary situation while the Steelers apply to a negative 31-95-1 ATS situation. The Jets get my highest technical analysis rating, which are 3-0 so far this season and now 62-40-1 over many years. I’ll lean with the Jets at +3 or more even despite the math leaning the other way.


  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Steelers


  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00


  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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