New York Jets @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Dec 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 317
Odds: New Orleans Saints -16, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – New York Jets (+16) over NEW ORLEANS

Lean – Under (47.5)

Josh McCown will miss this game due to injury and I expect the Jets to look like a much different team with Bryce Petty behind center. McCown found success all season long using the deep ball, ranking 3rd in the league with 9 touchdowns of greater than 20 air yards. Petty, however, is just 6 for 22 with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on deep passes in his career and New York’s best receiving threat downfield, Robby Anderson, will likely be stifled by Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Jets will likely attempt to stick with the ground game as long as possible because the Saints rush defense is soft, ranking 29th in my metrics. However, New York is a below average rushing team (3.8 ypr) and I don’t expect them to have much success without keeping the New Orleans’ safeties honest with the passing game. Bryce Petty averages just 4.8 yards per pass play with a 4.9% interception rate for his career and I expect the Jets offense to be about 5 points worse this week with him under center.

Alvin Kamara has been cleared to play this week and I expect the Saints to utilize their top-ranked rush offense heavily in a game – particularly if they have a comfortable lead, which you’d assume given the huge spread on this game. However, New York’s rush defense ranks 8th according to my numbers, so they match up well with a Saints’ attack that has morphed into a run-based attack with two strong backs to carry the load.

The line on this game has adjusted for McCown’s injury but my ratings would favor New Orleans by 16.8 points with Petty at quarterback for the Jets. Still, I’ll lean with New York on the basis of a very good 120-48-3 ATS road underdog blowout bounce-back situation (NYJ lost by 23 points last week). You might be thinking that the Saints will want to take out their frustrations on the Jets after losing last Thursday in Atlanta but history suggests otherwise. Home favorites of more than 14 points are just 7-24-1 ATS if they lost or tied the previous week (since 1980) and New Orleans may be playing more not to lose than to win big.

That conservative approach should also benefit the under and our model projects just 45 points in this game. I’ll lean Under 47 points or higher. I’ll lean Under 47 points or higher and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Jets
  • Saints
NYJ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.0 36.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 44.6%
  • Sack Rate 8.9% 5.3%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 22.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.1% 42.9%
  • NYPP 6.1 6.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.0 29.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 31.8% 28.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 34.3% 40.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.5% 37.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 62.0 65.0
  • Early Down Succ 42.3% 44.2%
  • Succ Rate 40.1% 42.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.6% 42.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 27.6
  • Run Ratio 44.7% 43.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.2 29.4
  • Game Control -0.5 0.5
 
  • Points 20.5 23.9
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