Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) over NY Jets

• The Jets became the first team in NFL history to win a game while gaining less than 175 yards on offense and not forcing a takeaway, but the smoke and mirrors will end on Thursday night.
• New York’s defense benefited from weather conditions that were 2.8 points worse than average and an opposing offense averaging a league-low 4.1 yards per play in their first game without cornerback Sauce Gardner and interior defender Quinnen Williams, and they will not be afforded the same advantage this week. The Patriots are averaging 5.9 yppl (5th), and the weather looks clear.
• Jets WR Garrett Wilson is out. New York’s next highest receptions at wide receiver are 11 from Josh Reynolds.
• Justin Fields would like to get Jets TE Mason Taylor involved without Wilson on the field. Taylor has a 60% success rate (8th), but he will be shut down as New England’s defense is conceding 0.10 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th).
• It was New York RB Breece Hall who accounted for 78% of the team’s receiving yards last week, but the Patriots can key in and contain the screen game.
• Hall will also be limited on the ground, too, as New England’s defense is conceding -0.14 EPA/rush (4th).
• Our model favors the Patriots by 14.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.2 points, and the Jets apply to a negative 31-89-2 ATS letdown situation this week that is based on their 2-game win streak (both as underdogs).

New England is a Strong Opinion at -13 or less.