Game Analysis

NY Jets (-7) vs NEW ENGLAND

• There are moving parts on the Jets defense this week with edge rusher Haason Reddick finally reporting to the facility and starting cornerback DJ Reed likely returning after missing last week. Reddick had 66 pressures last season (15th) and he will replace the hole left in New York’s pass rush when edge defender Jermaine Johnson suffered a torn Achilles in week 2.
• The Jets will also likely have starting nickelback Michael Carter back on the field after missing the last two games and he will limit WR Demario Douglas, who has a 55% success rate (19th).
• However, New York’s defense had injuries occur to both safeties Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis last week while S Chuck Clark is already on injured reserve. Drake Maye could have openings for the deep ball with the cluster loss at safety for the Jets.
• Maye might not have enough time in the pocket though as Jets edge rusher Will McDonald has 8.0 sacks (2nd) and will line up across from RT Demontrey Jacobs, who ranks 50th in pass blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying tackles.
• New England rushed for 38 yards on 15 carries in London and it won’t get better for the ground game this week as New York’s defense is allowing only 4.2 yards per rush (8th).
• The Jets offense also had a cluster loss at right guard with Alijah Vera-Tucker out along with his backup Xavier Newman. Vera-Tucker ranks 7th in pass-blocking efficiency and is worth 0.7 points over third-string guard Jake Hanson according to our metrics.
• New York’s offense should dial up some screens with Aaron Rodgers vulnerable to interior pressure. Jets RB Breece Hall is averaging 1.65 yards per route run (4th) and the Patriots are surrendering a 55% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (30th).
• Our model favors the Jets by 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.8 points.